Summer Highs

The knockout stages of both major summer international football tournaments - the 2024 Euros and Copa América - were extremely profitable for backers of the Draw with an ROI of 45% from the combined 22 matches. 

I know some of you were following, with the good Dr Tsouts (@drtsouts) reporting:

I started following from stage of 8 in Euro and Copa America 2024 and these are the numbers:

Euro 3 wins-4 losses, 7 units at risk, + 2.26 units
Copa 4 wins-3 losses , 7 units at risk, + 6.37 units

Stu_the_Hut (@progman68) also shared his numbers on Twitter, including the eight 'Round of 16' matches:

Here's my results :- 

Euro 5 wins, 9 losses, 14 units at risk, +3.78 units
Copa 4 wins, 2 losses, 6 units at risk, + 6.80 units

It looks like Stu may have skipped the Colombia v Panama game with the favourites a very short 1.34 at fair odds and winning 5:0, as well as the Spain v Georgia where the numbers were 1.23 and 4:1. 

Excluding matches where the fair priced favourite is shorter than 1.5 increases the overall ROI across all major tournaments from 25% to 30%. 

My 'official' numbers from the Quarter-Final stage are +2.25 and +6.09 units respectively, but these totals should be beatable as indeed Dr T and Stu have shown. The Round of 16 made another 1.59 units 'officially'. 

 

We now have data from 115 matches going back to 2004, and the overall ROI is a very solid 42%. Almost half the matches are quarter-finals, and the overall ROI on matches at this stage is now at 77%. 

There will be a UEFA Nations League tournament in June next year, although I'm not sure this young tournament is yet to be considered 'major' - and England won't be featuring given their relegation last time out - and in late December there is an Africa Cup of Nations to look forward to. 

The 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup will be a dress rehearsal for the 2026 World Cup and looks likely to include teams from Europe, Africa, South America and Asia. The Gold Cup is the one international tournament where backing the Draw isn't profitable with several lopsided games with a hot favourite (usually Mexico or USA), but if you exclude these matches, the ROI is positive, albeit by 'only' 9%, a number that would usually be quite exciting but when it's compared to the other tournaments, perhaps not so much. If countries from other confederations do end up taking part, the results may be more typical. 

It will also be interesting to see how the proposed expanded FIFA Club World Cup competition fits in with all this, since the United States is also hosting that competition. It's all getting a little messy with only FIFA appearing to be enthusiastic about the club competition. 

I'll expand on these numbers more in the Sacred Manuscript as I finalise the 2024-25 version over the next few days but here are the updated high level numbers for the major international football competitions:

I've had a couple of people ask me about Baseball, which I've suggested might be a sport best left alone while data following the major rule changes of recent years can be accumulated, but I do see a possible edge in some games which I'll be including.

A few weeks ago I mentioned Wayward Lad and his Pension Builder blog which hadn't been updated for a while, but Ian is back with an update on his Self-Invested Personal Pension account including a plan to "position the portfolio into more of an income generator than a pure growth vehicle." 

On a personal note, I picked a good week to head up to Scotland and hike up Ben Nevis. The first morning there was perfect, and unlike last year in the Lake District when I had to wait out the rain for a couple of days to climb Scafell Pike, this time I was done on day one with the reserve days not needed. 

The round trip took a little under seven hours and a few new records were set with the 36,200 steps and 251 flights recorded by my iPhone new all-time daily 'highs':

With Snowdon checked off in 2022, that's now the National Three Peaks off my bucket list. I think I'll climb Helvellyn in 2025 though - it's a mountain I hiked up with some school friends when I was 16 but I don't remember too much about it, except that the weather wasn't terribly good and we were woefully unprepared. I'm a little more sensible now. 

And then back to Scotland for Ben Macdui in 2026 perhaps, assuming I'm still able to walk. It's good to have goals. In 2027 I hope to turn 70, so a physical challenge on that day would be nice. The Yorkshire Three Peaks Walk looks like a possible candidate, but I'm open to suggestions.

I didn't pick such a good day for my visit to the Oval on Friday 5th July with Surrey's T20 game against Middlesex abandoned without a ball being bowled, but a full refund softened the blow and a quiet day before a twelve hour wedding on the Saturday might have been a good idea anyway.