Wednesday, 28 August 2013

Wise Man Of The Betting Blogosphere

The Carrot Dangler
If Graeme Dand, aka The Football Analyst, @TFAsystems is lacking anything, it is most certainly not confidence. I threw down the gauntlet in my last FTL update post and Graeme has not only picked it up, but has proceeded to metaphorically heartily slap each of us around the face with it, both cheeks, while calling us "losers". Kind of.

His email is below in full, but the highlight is that Graeme is not only happy to join the FTL, but is so confident of success and glory that he will also be dangling a £25 carrot for each and every entrant who finishes above him in the FTL table.

Graeme and I go back a long way. I believe I was in short trousers waiting for my voice to break when I first crossed paths with him in a discussion about horse racing and edges back in 2008, and he is a good egg.

Here is Graeme’s email in full, with my responses in brackets.
Hi Cassini. Hope things are well. [Things are well]
Just saw your blog post re. the FTL. [Try to read a little more frequently - there's some brilliant stuff on here].
I'm happy to get involved if entries are still allowed? [Entries are indeed still allowed. The only requirement is that the minimum total number of bets will be 64, and each month (August and September count as one as do April and May) must have at least 5 selections. Late comers can join at any time (might be an idea if everyone is deep in the red!) but the will need to make a pro-rated number of total selections, plus the minimum of 5 per month].
I won't have bets for a couple of weeks as I need 6-8 games to be played in each league. Given the start you guys have had, I'll pay the £25 entry and also put up a carrot of £25 to each person who finishes above me in the table! [Like rabbits, we love carrots].
Based on last year's FTL performance, any system I had would have won the league, so there's minimal risk I hope! I'll build a unique system for the FTL so you don't need to worry about pasting the bets beforehand. They won't match the subscriber bets. [Bring it on big boy!]
Only thing I need to know is how the league is ranked. Is it based on pts won or ROI? [The league is ranked on points. I do show the ROI as some people are interested in this number, but the points are what really matter].
I'll build a system to win the league based on either. Let me know your thoughts. I'm away on holiday from today, so may be slow in replying mate but as always, I'll reply when I can. No worries if I've missed the boat. Always next year! Hopefully my offer of £25 to each person who finishes above my system would ensure anyone in the league already doesn't mind me joining. :) 
And I thought I was modest! Well, the more the merrier, and the prospect of extra money coming into the pot must surely appeal to all those currently signed up, and possibly to anyone interested in joining the party. Finish ahead of Graeme and you at least get your money back. 

£25 PayPal to CalcioCassini @ is all it takes to join the fun - plus a few selections of course.

And finally, I’m not sure what prompted it, but Random Man commented that I am what Fergie “might have called the Dennis Wise of the betting blogosphere”. For those unfamiliar with Sir Alex’s words, he once said about Wise that “he could start a fight in an empty house” but I think Random Man may have simply meant that I am a wise man...


Punters Friend said...

Slightly surprised to see Mr. Dand decide to take part in the FTL considering that it was only a few weeks ago when he stated that the FTL was and I quote:

"probably the worst tipster league I’ve ever seen published anywhere on the net?"

He also said that:

"Putting my systems into Cassini’s friendly tipster league would be like Barcelona playing in the Bsq Prem for a season"

Talk about setting yourself up for a fall................ anyway I am looking forward to him paying out at the end of the season

Graeme Dand said...

PF, you've taken my comments out of context on a thread on a forum where I quite rightly exposed your website for making up false results and then you have posted my comments on here. Hardly very fair and not very friendly if I say so myself.

The 2nd comment was tongue in cheek and as for the first comment, I was simply using hyperbole to highlight the fact that you are pretending to have an 18% ROI laying system which I believe you have copied from the idea on this blog as I said on the forum posts. Cassini uncovered an edge in the Bundesliga and you have said you can achieve an 18% ROI by laying odds on favourites over the last 4 seasons and not only that, your website says you have been doing it live for 4 years which probably means you were doing it before Cassini. I said that's bullshi*. As I said on the forum, I will stand corrected when I see it happen. How is it going so far?

Not sure what you are trying to do by posting this comment (trying to wind up Cassini no doubt!) but I stand by my comment that putting my systems from last season into this league would have been like playing Barcelona in a lower league. I guess what I'm hoping to do is prove this is the case this season but no guarantee this season goes anything like the last 3 seasons.

Given you are hoping for an 18% ROI, I guess Cassini should just pay you out now and I'll forward the £25 also.

Good luck PF for the season ahead.


PS. If you want to see the context of my comments Cassini, I'll send you the whole transcript from the SBC forum when I'm back from holiday.
PPS. Be keen on your thoughts on the live results of the PF laying system on the PF website Cassini!

Punters Friend said...

Oh dear Mr. Dand doesn't like being outed does he, it wasn't meant to be friendly as you are not and never will be my friend.

I am certainly not trying to wind anybody up apart from you, so mission accomplished.

I look forward to receiving your £25.00.

Also with regard to the results posted on the PF website, you really have no idea do you, these results are freely available to anybody if they know where to look, they are not made up they are in the words of Raffa FACT.

Given that you are a "newbie" to betting on football you are excused for not knowing where to find such results.

Punters Friend said...

Just to help Mr. Dand out a bit he may want to take a look at a Blog that I ran on OLBG in 2010 where I was Laying Away teams in the English Leagues for the 2010/11 season, all fully proofed:

Closing Bank - 169.8 Points
Bets 56
Wins 34
SR - 60.0%
Points Risked - 410.7
ROI - 41.0%

Did you see that Mr. Dand ROI = 41.0%

You can read the whole Blog if you want to

Page 26 is where that season ends, the following season was nowhere near as profitable but all of the clues are in there for you Mr. Dand.

Graeme Dand said...

Hi PF.

I think if you look back at the thread where this debate started, I said the idea was a good one and I said that many of my systems will throw up the same bet (e.g. Opposing an odds on team). Hence, I don't doubt for one minute that over a tiny sample of bets, a great ROI could be achieved.

My issue is that I have the same data as you over the same 4 seasons and I don't see how you could gave achieved an 18% ROI by laying odds on favs. In a season where laying them all created a substantial loss, you have done something special to create the profits you're quoting.

End of the day, I have no issue with you and I look forward to being proved wrong as I said on the forum thread.

So far, you seem to have 3 systems (SBC thread, email list and the FTL) and it will be interesting to see how they do over the season. Early days so far.


Graeme Dand said...

Hi Neil. I had a quick glance at the thread. So, you made 170pts profit in season one and in season two, you made a loss of around 150pts. Not sure what went wrong on the P&L on the thread but it switched from being a laying thread to a backing thread and your P&L was consistently improving after winners at times in season two. The final P&L of -30pts made me laugh.

So, you basically stopped the thread as there appeared to be no edge and yet, if I look at your site, the P&L for that season is nearly 500pts!

How you can even try to bait me about results for a footie system when you have posted a thread that clearly showed there is no edge is beyond me mate!

Looking forward to hearing how you turned that season around from the thread P&L to the one you're quoting as being live results?

It's a shame I didn't know about the thread when I picked you up on the results you posted in the SBC forum. I wouldn't have given you such an easy time of it on the thread.

Before you ask, all my system results (all 20,000 of them over 3 seasons) are proofed to the SBC, shared via the blog and shared with TFA subscribers who follow the bets.


Punters Friend said...

I think you may have been affected by the heat in Las Vagas Mr. Dand or maybe you are simply not as smart as you think you are!

1, At NO point was the thread on OLBG a backing thread, where the hell did you get that from?

2, If you read it properly you will see that this thread was laying AWAY teams only so quite where you get the 500 points from on PF again is a mystery.

3, Season 2 finished with a profit of 30.2 points with a ROI of 3.40%, that is not a minus figure it is a dash, the bank re set to 0 at the start of the season, to be fair it wasn't really a bank it was simply a case of using a backers stake of 10 points for each bet.

Anyway I am bored with baiting you now I have other far more important things to attend to such as walking the dog.

Enjoy your holiday..

Jamie said...

I never have and never will get why on betting forums all over the internet there is arguments over who made how much. People questioning other people's profits.

If you make money fine, no need to question other people's if they claim to have made more. Or indeed bragging about how much you make.

This game is hard enough as it is. So if you are profitable, enjoy it instead of bickering and arguing and getting involved in 'My penis is larger' type arguments.

As long as you know how much you make what does it matter what a) anyone else makes and b) What anyone else thinks ???

For fuck sake lads. What year did you leave school ?

Anonymous said...

Unfortunately internet tipsters will always rely on numerous accounts and system to cherry pick the nicest pnl. It's rare to ever see these tipsters stick up a proper pnl of anything other than the odd winning bet. I guess in that murky world of internet tipping a bit of blarney and numerous systems to choose from goes a long way.

Webbo said...

This is making the Cassini and Iverson spats look tame!

I'm looking forward to seeing how well Graeme's selections do actually not just because of his bravado but because I've visited his site before and the numbers look impressive but there's never any hint of the actual selections (as far as I'm aware). By the sounds of it he's been given a license to print money!

Cassini, would you mind adding my new blog to your blogroll please? The link is (wp-feed bit needed to pick up the updates)


Phil said...

" Jamie said...

I never have and never will get why on betting forums all over the internet there is arguments over who made how much. People questioning other people's profits."

Ummmm, it's hardly rocket science, a couple of internet tipsters bickering over makes the most profit. You do understand the concept of advertising don't you, Jamie?

Graeme Dand said...

I agree with all the comments!

PF, you walk the dog, I'll enjoy my holiday!

Totally agree with the sentiment of your post James. I only got involved in this as I agree 100% with the anonymous poster. The internet is full of people making up results and it means anyone who genuinely has an edge has to win all the sceptics over before anyone believes in the edge they have. I have a real issue with people making up results.

I agree with Webbo that TFA has been a licence to print money for anyone following TFA over the last 3 seasons. That probably explains why it's impossible to get the bets as the service is closed! All the bets are proofed independently as I said above. Any SBC member could confirm this as I've been top of the various proofing leagues since inception. Any of my members for the last few seasons could confirm this also.

When I sent Cassini the mail to say I'd give the FTL a go and for a bit of a carrot for others to join, chuck in £25 for everyone who beats me, not sure I expected such a response. It's lucky my ratings and systems are all automated, they'd be under a whole lot of pressure now! ;)

Can't wait for the season now. Who cares how my other 53 systems do and how much money I or subscribers win...I need to win the FTL or I've clearly got no edge at this game! ;)


Webbo said...

I've never really understood limiting subscriber numbers. How do you know where to draw the line when you don't know how much people are wanting to bet?

Each one of your members could only be having a tenner on but if your computerised selections are as rock solid as you suggest (not doubting you at all btw) they'd each be getting as much as poss on making limiting member numbers pointless.

Anonymous said...

Geez Cassini, you sure do seem to have a knack for creating a bit of buzz and controversy!

Think I remember you from the 'Ultimate Betting Forum' could be wrong of course.

Please say something nasty or skeptical about my new blog, so that I get a bit of free traffic, I'm pretty lonely talking to myself
: )

Gary said...

And Anonymous it seems, missed the name part lol : )

Graeme Dand said...

If TFA was purely around supplying system bets to subscribers and letting them build their own portfolio of systems to follow with no guidance from me, I agree I wouldn't need to worry too much about limiting numbers. My issue is that I give up 6-8 weeks each Summer helping people out with advice and portfolio spreadsheets to give them the best chance of making the best profits from following the systems I provide. Hence, I have to limit numbers or I wouldn't be able to cope with the workload.

My other issue is the average stake. I know of at least 8 subscribers playing with a betting bank of £50k+ next season. There could be more in my subscriber base who don't communicate with me around staking levels. As you say, with the record the systems have, people are using big stakes these days and I have a number of professional punters following the systems. The market can only handle so much on a Thursday evening.

SBC members will be aware of this but I am trialling some 'off the shelve' portfolios in their forum this season and if this idea works, it would open the door for more people to potentially follow TFA and make money.

With my own betting these days also ramping up off the back of the last 3 seasons, I've gone from a small punter to something slightly more serious. Not in the same league as the £50k+ guys but if I have another good season, I will be there in 12 months. Therefore, the service becomes less important as the betting returns will justify the hours and hours it takes each week to maintain 8 rating algorithms spanning 10 leagues and updating 53 systems. Most services have 1 rating algorithm, TFA has 8. Maybe explains why TFA has been operating on a different level to any other football tipster/system in the last 3 seasons.