Saturday, 3 August 2013

Ticking Off

The Betfair Forum thread on the 0:0 draw continued yesterday, with the respected Kenilworth (aka the Stephen Hawking of Betfair) commenting: 
Excellent post by cpfc4me. Fwiw, the sides most likely to produce 0-0's are those with the lower goal expectancy. 
What I find intriguing is the fascination of the 0-0 scoreline. At half time in this Sheffield United v Notts County almost a third of the money placed on the correct score is/was on 0-0 despite being about 5th favourite in the betting. Perhaps a psychiatrist can explain why.
The first sentence really didn't need to be said, and 0-0s in the second is plural, and doesn't need an apostrophe, but his point is correct on goal expectancy. While I am closer to requiring the services of a psychiatrist than being qualified to practice as one, in my opinion the 0:0 is so popular because at the start of a match, it is the winning score. If nothing happens, the price will decay, and that can be seductive.

AyersRock suggested that:
The fascination with the 0-0 scoreline is because if you look at the most frequent scoreline at half time last season in the big leagues it reads like this (see table left)
And then he suggests that "it's a good trading position" - presumably for the reason I suggested above. When challenged by Kenilworth to "explain why you think it's a good trading position" the reply was:

For half time scores market I have backed the 0-0 many times and traded out for 20 ticks before half-time

I believe I have mentioned this before, but unless there is some magical reason why, upon decaying by 20 ticks, the price on 0:0 is suddenly a value lay after being a value back for the previous 19 ticks, why would you lay at this time?

Kenilworh did ask if AyersRock had made any money, and of course the answer was yes, and I am sure that this is a profitable strategy for many matches.

The problem is that in the long run, unless the initial price on the 0:0 was a value back, i.e. your goal expectancy was lower than the market's, and you are right more often than the market, then you are destined to lose in the long run whether you lay off after 1 tick, 5 ticks, 20 ticks, or [enter tick count here] ticks.

Following the AyersRock 'logic', would backing the current score after a goal and waiting 20 ticks be a good trading position too? Does this system work with the half-time score?

Unfortunately in-play football betting is not that simple. If it really were that easy AyersRock would be logging in from Uluru and other tourist destinations around the world and be a millionaire several times over.

And if AyersRocks really is profitable long term on these bets, then he is finding value and shouldn't be shooting himself in the foot by giving value back after 20 ticks.

Out of interest, I looked at the XX Draw Half-Time 0:0s from last season and in England, France, Italy and Spain, the percentage was 34.8% (157 from 451). In the Bundesliga, the percentage was slightly lower than the league average at 24.24%.

Less than a week to go before the real football season begins. Pinnacle are taking their time putting up prices in Ligue 1, but the Bundesliga selections have been recorded. And after the first day of a two-day meeting attended by all clubs, the Italian fixtures are decided. The second day is needed to work out what the results will be.

I'm here all week.

1 comment:

Danny Murphy said...

Real football IS back!

Good luck to everyone in the Football League. Eighteen thousand at Pompey (League 2) today. You have to feel for Coventry fans too, a really bad situation there.