Saturday, 28 July 2012

Qualifying Statement

BigAl had a comment on my statement that "In betting, the goal for a professional should be to win as much as possible in the time available" which was "That statement needs an awful lot of qualifying."

I shall try. I have to choose my words carefully when BigAl is around. Which is a lot.

What I meant by that statement was really that those of us who make money from the exchanges should be making hay while the sun shines, because they may not be around forever, and for anyone who does this professionally, (or at least someone for whom this is their main source of income), this is even more essential.

Betting for a living is unlike many other professions where the goal is not necessarily to maximise income, but about putting in the groundwork and establishing yourself for a significantly more lucrative future.

As we have seen with the various stages of the Premium Charge, the goalposts can move very quickly, so my point was that current opportunities should be taken advantage of at all times. Specifically to the debate with Mark Iverson, I don't think it makes any sense for anyone to coast 23% of the time, least of all a professional.

Betfair may well reduce the Premium Charge threshold at some point in the future. It may sound like a high figure right now (it's not when you think in terms of median incomes over 10 years or so) and it may well be a lot lower soon. Not to mention the possibility of a ban on in-play betting or even the closing of profitable accounts. Any of these changes would be an irritation to most of us, admittedly a big irritation, but with a first job, life goes on. With all your eggs in the Betfair basket, and other baskets have yet to prove viable, it would be a lot more serious, which is why taking your foot off the pedal is a poor strategy. 
And speaking of the debate, I am still puzzled by Mark's last Tweet on the subject, above. The fear and greed that brings about Mark's change in strategy / approach / mindset in the last week of a month doesn't happen every month apparently, only 'often'. In which months, or under what conditions, his performance remains unaffected is yet to be revealed, but if Mark can identify the reasons why he is able to trade optimally during these occasional months, he is on the way to being able to do this every month.

Managing fear and greed, or anything in fact, is about more than just making yourself aware of it. Managing a situation is about taking action, not about increasing awareness. Managing your weight, for example, doesn't mean getting on the scales four times a day - it means taking in less calories than you are burning (assuming you want to lose weight of course!) Being aware of a problem is important, but only a first step.   


The in-running analyst said...

Nice blog. Just re your comment on possibility of a ban on in-play. Has that been discussed in the UK? Just curious. Cheers.

Cassini said...

FIFA and UEFA have expressed concerns about it and are considering a ban on in-game betting. If the principle is established that in-play betting represents a bigger threat of manipulation than traditional gambling, you can expect other sports to follow.

In the UK, the Gambling Commission's March 2009 report on in-running betting also had concerns with integrity, fairness and openness (bots) although the report concluded "From the evidence we have received and considered to date, we have come to
the conclusion that the current regulatory regime we have in place for in-running betting is
sufficient and does not need further controls at this time. However we will continue to
monitor in-running betting as part of the Commission’s compliance programme."

AL said...

im very surprised Mark takes his foot off the pedal at certain times of the month. some people might say you are being harsh to point it out, but it's quite a valid point.

im no expert, but it doesn't make sense to not dive in if there is an opportunity unless you want to have a few days rest which always makes sense especially if you have been hard at it all month. most of my losses have been caused by tiredness/lack of concentration or over doing it. You can't beat a fresh mind ready to green up

Little AL