The Lay System has generated five selections for tomorrow. They are: Portsmouth, Swansea City, Forest Green Rovers, Kidderminster Harriers and Forfar Athletic.
I shall be laying each of the five to a loss of £10.85, but following a comment from A. Nonymous last Saturday it may be wise to exclude two of these selections, namely Portsmouth and Forfar as they are both playing teams that have nothing to play for. He/she has a valid point, so I shall be watching these two results with special interest. Forfar are the shortest price at 2.74, Portsmouth are longest at 3.3, and the others are in-between at 3.25 (Swansea), 3.0 (Forest Green) and 3.15 (Kidderminster).
Result: I guess stranger things have happened in the history of football, but Kidderminster was not one of my system’s best ever selections winning by no less than 6-1 at Halifax, who previously had lost just three times at home all season. Such is life. I guess Halifax are resigned to playing in the Conference North next season.
Portsmouth also let me down by trying too hard in one of the two games where my selection was playing a team with nothing to play for. At least Forfar didn’t win, but I would have been better off excluding both these selections.
All in all, not a very good night with two losses from just five selections. I shall update the numbers later. As the commenter on Saturday said, we are entering a tricky time of the year with so many games involving either one or sometimes both teams who have nothing to play for. I am thinking that I shall heed his advice and drop those matches from my list. Watch this space.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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