Without a doubt, my favourite trading sport is back today with three games. Trading NBA games in-play is wonderfully exciting with the market quite often "wrong" during games. I have been watching for three seasons now, and learning and improving each year.
Liquidity is generally good, except on nights when most teams are in action when the money can be spread a little thinly, and there is no comparison with ice hockey.
Rather disappointing to see that BETDAQ are not turning these games in-play, but I will be placing my occasional straight punts on there.
Who will win the NBA Championship this year? My fancy is last year's losing finalists the Lakers (4.6 to win the NBA championship) in the strong West, with the Spurs (14) and the Suns (20) safe lays.
In the East, my lay is the Celtics (4.7). It's been a few years since a champion has repeated, and I don't expect Boston to end that sequence. Despite losing their opener, the Cavaliers (18) are good value to again make the play-offs and win the East.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
Totally agree with you. Pity that all games are so late at night and with a daily job and a girlfriend to entertain, it's difficult to follow the games and find the value. Lays to the big teams at the beginning of the season are always a good thing, the season is so long that injuries and big trades will always occur and chances to green up before playoffs time is always a good solution.
ReplyDeleteLike your blog, thank you and good luck
Mahara
Hi Roberto,
ReplyDeleteI have to admit, I've not previously taken an interest in the NBA. Now that you've sparked my interest, where' the best place to see the games?
From your experience, are 'live pictures' delayed?
All the best and thanks in advance.
Mark
Roberto, JPG here again! Absolutely right, the NBA is fantastic sport to trade. Both position taking and scalping (if liquidity is of a semi decent standard.)
ReplyDeleteThe main problem though is with live feeds although my style is usually not affected by any delays as I only open and close postions with a 30 sec delay already part of my thought process. Scalping is made harder of course but isnt impossible when you consider there are so many "wrong" prices due to emotional over-reactions.
Thanks for the comments boys. As JPG says Mark, trying to scalp with live feeds is not the way to go. As with all US Sports, the NBA has frequent stoppages (numerous time-outs, plus end of every quarter) where prices stabilise and that's when I like to look for value. Look for a close game and see how much the prices move on a basket, and there are usually multiple time-outs during those last two minutes.
ReplyDeleteMahara - you need to get a girlfriend who understands you need to sleep from 5pm to midnight every day during the season. It's only 8 months...