A good example of why I love the NBA for trading. Pre-game prices for the New Orleans Hornets playing at the Golden State Warriors were approximately 1.4 / 3.5 respectively. The Hornets are one of the strongest teams in the West, and made the play-offs last season.
The Warriors were an exciting team last year, just falling short of making the play-offs. I say 'were' because they lost a couple of players during the close season, most notably Baron Davis who will be hard to replace, but Don Nelson is an experienced coach who likes to use 3 point shooting and I hope that continues this year.
Anyway, I'm waffling, but tonight's game was always close, when a time-out was called with 2:53 left in the game, the Hornets up by 2, but with the Warriors having 2 free throws after the time-out.
Guess the price on the Hornets at this time?
You were wrong. I'll tell you. The Hornets were trading in the 1.38 / 1.42 range. To me that is crazy, and crazy means value. Value means profit.
As it happened, the Hornets did go on to win the game by 5 points, but not before they had traded as high as 2.32 (I know because I put in a back at 2 and got matched at 2.32!).
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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