Regular commenter JPG (the provocative devil) got me thinking again about the Under / Over Goals markets.
As my regular reader will know, I have written in the past about the futility of these markets, but in the light of JPG’s prompting, I decided to re-evaluate it this week. My thinking is that if JPG can make money in these markets, then darn it, so can I!
Although I have watched football for over 40 years, (and even played for Holland* in my youth), I can’t claim to be able to predict or read a game well enough to make money from it, but trading the Under / Over markets following certain rules doesn’t require an in-depth knowledge of the game.
So as with all trading, we need to determine entry and exit points. Unfortunately the market does not signal the ideal entry / exit point of ‘just before a goal is scored’ but there are others.
It appears to me that the entry points can be narrowed down to two types:
1) Pre-determined (i.e. enter the market prior to kick-off, at half-time, after x number of minutes or after a certain change in price).
2) Event-determined (i.e. enter the market just after a goal is scored (JAGIS), a substitution, a yellow or red card, a change in tactics or conditions etc.)
Exit points can be similarly Pre-determined or Event-determined.
Historically, my entry points have always been somewhat arbitrary, as have my exit points, but after much pondering I have settled on a new strategy. Enter the market JAGIS. My exit strategy remains to be decided upon, but for today’s experiment in the Everton v Aston Villa game it was to exit after a target price had been reached.
It worked rather well. The early goal for Aston Villa meant I could lay the Over 2.5 at 1.56, and go Green-All-Over when the price climbed to 1.68. Then when Everton equalized I layed the Overs at 1.24, greening-up again at 1.34. (I wasn’t totally comfortable with this strategy after two goals because another goal kills the bet – perhaps after two goals, I should switch to the 3.5 goals market?).
Anyway, a nice little profit today but further analysis is required. Not to mention that I still need to address the issue of what games to try this method in, although if one isn’t too greedy, then it may be a profitable strategy in any televised (i.e. liquid) game.
On a side-note, there was some serious damage at the end of this game with an equalizer and then a winner both scored in time added on. £62,313 traded on the draw at 1.01. Ouch.
I’m a firm believer that 1.01 bets can be, and often are, value, but I seriously question whether 1.01 in a one goal game is EVER value in football. Which gives me another idea…
* Holland Sports FC, in Hurst Green, Surrey – not the ‘other’ Holland you may have heard of.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
Cassini, apologies if my comments earlier lead to financial loss!
ReplyDeleteBoredom and a feeling of missing out are what I believe lead people to lose their profits (and then some) on these markets. In other words they either get involved too quick or will get involved whatever the price is.
To be long term prfotiable, you need to be getting value. For an in-play market with people's over-reactions generally amplified in these cases, this is relatively easy as long as you're not seduced by the promise of relatively small, relatively quick profits, regardless of price.
Good luck with it mate. - JPG
No apology necessary JPG. I made a little money, so I was happy. I just feel a little like the recovering alcoholic who managed to kick his under/over habit but has now been tempted back, albeit by my mentor. But I've told my counsellor I can handle it...
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