There are three 'big' games today, two Premier League matches and the East Anglia derby.
I have run the numbers and my selections are lays of home teams Norwich City (2.73 v Ipswich Town) and West Bromwich Albion (2.8 v Portsmouth).
Interestingly enough my numbers for Everton v Aston Villa are almost exactly the same as the market's - I have Everton at 2.86 and the exchanges have them at 2.82, and I have Aston Villa at 2.825 with the exchanges at 2.8. So, no bet there.
Update: One winner, but a net loss on those predictions. New rule: no betting in derby games!
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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