After Chelsea's loss as a 1.33 favourite, I’ve been taking a look at the fate of all the favourites in the Premier League so far this season.
After 64 games, the favourite has won 43 times, for a profit of 14.96 points,(23.38%) to a level 1 point stake. When the favourite is odds-on, the profit from 34 games and 28 wins is 9.48 (27.88%) and when the favourite is at evens or greater, the profit is 5.48 – 18.27% (15 winners from 30 selections).
When it comes to football betting, I think of the Lay option as the equivalent of the each-way bet. You fancy your selection, but just in case they don’t have enough, you get the draw on your side too. You get more frequent winners, but lower returns.
Clearly, while laying the draw would have been a most lucrative strategy so far this season, when it comes to opposing a team, one would have been better off to simply back the opponent.
Aren’t statistics fun?
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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