With the new boys in the Premier League all having six games behind them, it's time to include them in my betting.
Today's fixtures aren't too exciting to be honest, but there are a few value plays. The Big Four are all odds-on, and Liverpool at 1.16 are too short for me. The other three look good value though, especially Arsenal at 1.56.
Bolton Wanderers have better recent form than Birmingham and have played better than their results would suggest, so that makes for a lay of Birmingham.
Back Everton (2.0) @ Portsmouth
Lay Birmingham City (2.35) v Bolton Wanderers
Back Manchester United (1.42) @ Stoke City
Back Tottenham Hotspur (1.35) v Burnley
Back Chelsea (1.33) @ Wigan Athletic
Back Arsenal (1.56) @ Fulham
Update: Not too shabby, but a clean sheet ruined by a 13.5 shot!
Back Everton (2.0) @ Portsmouth W 100
Lay Birmingham City (2.35) v Bolton Wanderers W 74.07
Back Manchester United (1.42) @ Stoke City W 42
Back Tottenham Hotspur (1.35) v Burnley W 35Back Chelsea (1.33) @ Wigan Athletic L -100
Back Arsenal (1.56) @ Fulham W 56
Stake: 600 Return: 807.07 P/L: +207.07 (34.5%)
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
Hi mate,
ReplyDeletenice blog! I've enjoyed reading through your old posts. I'v put a link on my blog, just wondered if you could link to me too?
Cheers & good luck
Steve
http://www.thebetfairfootballtrader.com
Cassini,
ReplyDeleteSome nice results there from Saturdays matches.
Just curious, I notice that you have a stake of 100 on each match posted.
I dont mean to be nosy but is this how you stake? To be honest, Im not interested in the amount, more the methodology! :)
Is the flat 100 stake for illustrative purposes? (which I could understand you doing.)
Cheers,
JPG
Cassini,
ReplyDeleteIt is very interesting to see others perception of value. I believed out of the Big 4 this weekend only Chelsea offered real value. My stats are really based on how an opponent fared in recent matches against opposition of a similar quality and so far it has worked for me. Although i must admit this season has not started that spectacularly for myself.
I take it you are basing your value from your ratings which looks at matches against all opposition?
Steve - your link is added.
ReplyDeleteJPG - the 100 is for illustrative purposes only, to show the return to a level stake.
Pete - I factor the last six (league) games against ANY opposition into the equation. That's an interesting idea to adjust them by a factor depending on opponent's rating though... I like it!
Hi Cassini,
ReplyDeleteWhat superb results yesterday-well impressed. I've just linked your blog-could you do the same for me please sir.
Thanks, Steve