A rather annoying small overall loss today, with Manchester United failing to beat Sunderland. As I suggested, 1.21 was a little tight, and I did notice that the price had moved out to 1.24 by kick-off. This is the shortest price to lose this season, (odds-on favourites have won 31 of 37) and these things are going to happen.
With overs still comfortably ahead this season 42-29 and showing a profit of 13.7 to a level 1 point stake, it was good to pick the only under of the day.
Now to tomorrow's fixtures, and a busy day in London.
Arsenal v Blackburn: Arsenal are short at 1.25 to win this, but I think they will. After beating similarly rated Wigan and Fulham in the past two weeks, I expect a comfortable home win.
Everton v Stoke City: Everton at 1.62 to win this. Although Stoke have picked up a couple of points away from home this season, they were at weaker teams, and Everton will be too strong.
West Ham v Fulham: A low scoring game, and with both teams in poor form I am going for a draw covering 0-0 (10.5) or 1-1 (7.4) as well as unders at 1.8.
Chelsea v Liverpool: Form favours Chelsea, recent performances favours Liverpool. Both teams return from disappointing trips to Europe, although at least Chelsea won. Games between these two tend to be tight, but these teams are the top two in my performance ratings and I think overs at 2.16 is a stonking bet, with a lay of Liverpool (4.0) the match odds bet.
Update:
Another disappointing day. Two losing matches, with Everton failing to win, and the Chelsea - Liverpool game coming up one goal short. Interestingly the price on overs dropped to 2.06 before kick-off and 2.16 was indeed generous. Arsenal won easily enough, and the lay of Liverpool came in. As predicted, West Ham and Fulham did draw, but unfortunately my attempt to make a little extra on the 0-0 and 1-1 fell short with the game finishing 2-2, and my unders bet lost too.
Back Arsenal (1.25) v Blackburn W 25
Back Everton (1.62) v Stoke L -100
Back Draw (3.35) West Ham v Fulham W 235
Back 0-0 and 1-1 (10.5/7.4) West Ham/Fulham L -100
Back Under 2.5 (1.8) West Ham v Fulham L -100
Lay Liverpool (4.0) @ Chelsea W 33.33
Back Over 2.5 (2.16) Chelsea v Liverpool L -100
09-10 Totals - Stake: 2100 Return: 2288.13 P/L: 188.13 (+8.96%)
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
Yep, United wrecked my day too, happy to finish at +£32 for 8 hours effort!
ReplyDeleteI'll be laying Blackburn (gulp), Liverpool and Stoke tomorrow.