An interesting day today, with three spot-on predictions on the Premier League more than making up for three losses. With Chelsea predicted to win by 4, I not only backed them to win, but for the first time ever had a bet on Any Unquoted at 3.85. The gods gave me a draw at Burnley, courtesy of an 86th minute goal, but took away a win for West Ham that looked probable early on. Manchester United also won easily enough.
The other disappointments were Birmingham winning, and even more so, Sunderland beating Arsenal when the latter were expected to win by 2. Liverpool were picked by 2 but with their form the second worst in the Premier League at the start, I left this one alone.
Finding the draw is an area that is showing potential. Although 4 winners from 10 picks doesn't sound great, with an average price of 3.4, this is a good strike rate, although we will need a much bigger sample before getting too excited.
Tomorrow's game at Bolton is not only predicted a draw on the ratings, but is also an intra-group game.
In other news, another value basketball lay (New York Knicks at 1.5) failed to deliver when the New Jersey Nets couldn't close out the game, but I had a couple of winners during the night, so it's all about the big picture.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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