Hurt And Upset

GolfingGolfer had a very apt George Soros quote to add to the campaign to explain value:

"It doesn't matter how often you are right or wrong - it only matters how much you make when you are right, versus how much you lose when you are wrong."

Perfectly put.

John weighs in on the primary factors affecting the price on football games with

Are injuries, although less common, a factor in football? Injuries are a key driver in the NFL, especially when a starting quarterback goes down. Take a look at how the Indianapolis Colts have fared this season.

Weather is also a key factor in the NFL. I don't know much about football, but I would expect it play a factor, especially in the over/under markets.

Hurt players can have an impact on the price in any sport - individual sports such as tennis or golf obviously far different to a team sport, where the key is how much does the injured player mean to the team. As John says, in the NFL, the quarterback is key - just look at the fortunes of the Indianapolis Colts this season without star Peyton Manning (although they did rather well last night, more of which later). Less of an issue in football with eleven players, unless it's a key (key being a relative term here) player of course, but with just five players on court per team in basketball, injuries can be hugely significant here. The loss of a top player Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Derek Rose, Dwight Howard for example, is huge. The loss of playing time through foul trouble is also an area that can give you an edge in this sport. A couple of early fouls on a key player, and you know the team will be without him for a while.

While we are on the NBA, Tennis-Trade Strategies asks:

How about the Warriors game on the 25th. They trade above 2.50 now, but I would expect them to win or at least I think they trading way to high for their 3 Point skills and playing home will have the players pumped.

Would this be a good entry point getting matched before the game at such a price and trade out if warriors get a good start and if they go behind more than 1 or 2 back to back points trade out?

This would be my first approach on NBA, not sure if this is a good one. Market might also overreact and go above 3 or 4 on a run against the Warriors.

and later added

now i see why price for warriors keep rising... biedrins and ellis out... injury... especially ellis is gonna hurt the team

a perfect example of the risks of taking a position too early. Stephen Curry is also doubtful after injuring his ankle again in the final pre-season earlier this week. Also, Monta Ellis has some off field issues to deal with (wife / girlfriend / sexting - usual NBA stuff!). John (again) commented that:

The Warriors are responsible for some big swings. Along with the Suns, they play the highest tempo of any NBA team. They are coached to shoot the ball within the first ten seconds of the shot clock. If they go cold shooting they can fall out of games easily.

One thing to be aware of is that the Warriors have a new coach this season, Mark Jackson, and the style of play may change slightly. Certainly in the days of Don Nelson, they were one of the best teams to trade, with their propensity for both giving up and scoring points in bunches. The Clippers look better than ever this season. Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, backed up by Chauncey Bullups and DeAndre Jordan, this should be Clippers' best season ever, and opening day / night will be very interesting.

Finally, I mentioned the Indianopolis Colts earlier, and last night they upset the Houston Texans, rallying to win on the final drive. I will stop boring you soon with all these charts showing the opportunities in the NFL for trading, but this was one of the better ones. Trading at 1.1x after taking a 7-0 lead, the oft-mentioned strategy of mine to lay the first TD scoring team paid off rather nicely, although unfortunately I was out by the time the final drive was under way. I couldn't help but be concerned that the Colts would have been better off as a franchise by losing the game. Oh well. Here's the chart for the Colts from a little before the end: