Presidential Pants

And the winner is... well, actually, we have three winners, so the £333.33 was quite an appropriate prize amount after all. The 1/3rd of a millionth hit was reached last night, and as a result Mark Iverson, Loudsight and Geoff M each have a free £111.11 Betfair bet. No horses. No dogs. Win, and they walk into the sunset with 2/3rds of the profit. I shall post their selections up here as they come in, unless the prize goes unclaimed of course.

A supposed technical glitch in one of the horse racing markets yesterday saw a horse, Voler La Vedette, with over £21m available at 29, a liability approaching £600m. All bets were voided, but it's a little concerning how such an error could occur. I've never seen anything like it before, and I'm not sure anyone else has. Scott Ferguson has a fuller post on it here. skoqp asked

Would you be so kind as to discuss the potential entry and exit points in the game. Perhaps by annotating the graph. All I see is a price ramping up and then down again. When looking at price movements after the fact/event it's quite easy to visualise entry and exit points. Obviously, whilst the game is in progress it would have been impossible to know how far up the price would go and vice versa when it started to drop. So I can only imagine that you would have to have predetermined entry and exit points...

Unfortunately, the game has long gone, and it would be very difficult, if not impossible, to match the spikes with one specific play. It's about momentum changes, and the entry and exit points are subjective. There is certainly no pre-determined point, at least not for my trading style. It's a rare game that heads straight to 1.01 though, so a strategy of laying both teams at say 1.9 (if they are closely matched) is profitable long-term. I believe I mentioned before that I looked at a number of charts with Peter Nordsted a few years ago, and noticed some repeating patterns. skoqp also has some reassuring words about there being another Xmas, and if he is offering 1.05, I would like some of that price please.

Well, it's 1.05 that the world won't end in 2012 and that there will be Christmas in 2012. But it's certainly 1.02 that there will be some serious fireworks as a result of the EU blowing up. 2012 will be the year they fail to kick the can down the road. I hope you are well hedged... Oh and has anyone noticed that 2012 is the year the US Federal Reserve's mandate comes up for renewal, and 2012 is the year of the US Presidential Elections. Politically and economically, this coming year will be exciting beyond anything we've experienced so far... Lots and lots of interesting bets. I've already made a tidy little sum by backing Ron Paul early on - in the Republican Nominee market on Betfair.:
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=100982378&ex=1
Sorry for the rambling post, i actually meant to ask - do you live in Europe? If so do you really stay up till 1AM to bet on the NBA and NFL.

You lost me a bit there on the US Federal Reserve's mandate coming up for renewal in 2012, since the mandate of maximum employment and stable prices is set in stone, but 2012 is a bigger year than most - and not just because it has 366 days! It's a big year for sport, starting with the League Cup semi-finals and then the less important Euro 2012 in the summer. There's also the London Olympics, if that is your cup of tea. And yes, there is a Presidential Election in the United States. I can't bring myself to bet in the Republican Nominee market - they are all awful, but I'm hoping it'll be one of the more awful candidates, who faces Obama in November.

Mitt Romney - wears magic underwear, sorry, temple garments. Leader of the free world...

Michele Bachman, where does one begin?

Rick Perry "I am a firm believer in intelligent design as a matter of faith and intellect, and I believe it should be presented in schools alongside the theories of evolution.”

God help us.

Throw in Newt "Family Values" Gingrich:

"He walked out in the spring of 1980.... By September, I went into the hospital for my third surgery. The two girls came to see me, and said, "Daddy is downstairs. Could he come up?" When he got there, he wanted to discuss the terms of the divorce while I was recovering from my surgery." - Jackie, his first (of three so far) wife

with that lot, and Libertarian leaning Ron Paul looks by far the one to give Obama (1.91) a run. I made some money on Barack Obama last time around and I am hoping for a repeat win for both of us - even if it makes for a late night, which don't seem so late when there's money at the end of it!