The decision to play the Unders in the Jacksonville Jaguars v Buffalo Bills Wild Card game turned out to be correct, with just 13 points scored in total. The decision to skip the bet on them to cover wasn't so good.
In the final game of this round, the Carolina Panthers covered the spread versus the New Orleans Saints to complete a nice weekend.
The College Football season comes to an end tonight with the Championship game between 3.5 point favourites Alabama and Southeaster Conference rivals Georgia. This is only the fourth season of College play-offs, and with only 11 games in the books, there are not too many trends.
One thing that does stand out is that the lines tend to be way off in these games. Eight have been 'wrong' by double figures, with half of those by 28 points or more.
Favourites are 6-5 straight up, 5-6 against the spread. In games where the line is less than 7 points, the underdog is 5-2 ATS, with the two losses both this season as the favourites both covered the three points they were giving.
Although these play-off games are all technically neutral, the game is being played in Atlanta, which for those of you who flunked geography, is in the state of Georgia. While Georgia play their home games in Athens, they have already played, and won, two games in Atlanta this season, including the SEC Championship game last month.
As for the total points, the line is set historically low at 45 points. The only two games with similarly low totals (44.5 and 46.5) both went Under, but again, the sample is very small so don't go crazy.
I'll be on Alabama -3.5 and Under 45 points.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
No comments:
Post a Comment