The Draw at the World Cup

I'm now returned from my Xmas holiday in the wilds of Kent, and pleased to have managed enough walks through the muddy fields in borrowed Wellington boots to achieve my goal of 2,000 miles on foot this year. It only occurred to me today that a goal of 2,022 would have been much catchier, and at 2,011 with two days to do, this is almost certainly done.

The 2,000 miles target was upwardly revised once I realised the original 1,200 miles a month was going to be too easy. 

Next year's goal will be an even tougher one, set at 2,023 miles. The absence of an office to go to, and a reduction in business travel, have combined to create the extra time needed each day to accomplish this. 5.55 miles a day at 15 minute miles is about an hour and 23 minutes a day. Plus I have the flexibility now to wander off in mid-day while it is still light and avoid any inclement weather.

While I was away, the World Cup wrapped up with a great result for Draw backers in the Final. A profit from backing the Draw in every knockout game was already guaranteed before the Semi-Finals began, but the Final Draw was icing on the cake. The investment was looking extremely unlikely to pay dividends for much of the game, but two Mbappé goals in the last ten minutes came as a welcome surprise. 

Backing the Draw in all 15 games resulted in a 3.53 unit profit, an ROI of 24%, and in games with no fair priced odds-on favourite, the respective numbers were 4.68 units profit and a 94% ROI.

I have data starting with the 2006 World Cup, and by tournament, here are the totals for backing the Draw in every knockout game and in only those with no fair priced odds-on favourite:

While there is a women's World Cup next summer, the next big international tournament for the men's game is CONCACAF's Gold Cup (also next summer) although that tournament isn't great for this strategy, followed by Africa's 2023 Cup of Nations delayed to January 2024. The summer of 2024 will see both the Copa America and Euro tournaments.

Here are the updated numbers for backing the Draw in every game for these tournaments:

And here are the numbers for the Draw in matches with no fair priced odds-on favourite:

Full details are in the Sacred Manuscript, so I'm confident at least a few readers made a decent profit from this World Cup. 

A nice way to the end the year, which hasn't been the best one by the numbers, but more on that in the New Year when I look back and forward. Happy New Year to everyone who reads this. Stay healthy and stay lucky.