Second Legs and Big 6 Cup Ties

I mentioned on Tuesday that:

The Champions League Round of 16 closes this week with four second leg matches remaining, and to date, fewer than 17% of these matches end as draws, an implied price of 6.07. In matches where both clubs are from one of the Big 5 Leagues, the numbers are fewer than 15% and 6.69.

The strategy for the Round of 16 matches in the sacred manuscript made a profit of 2.01 units and while Laying The Draw isn't one of my usual strategies, in certain Second Leg matches in European competitions, it's a profitable way to play. 

Here are the numbers for backing the Draw in the Second Leg of the the early rounds of the knockout stage for the three tournaments:

Things change as the tournaments progress however, and Laying The Draw is not a strategy to follow in the next rounds. 

The markets for Second Leg matches also appear to offer value when the First Leg finished 0:0. We only have 84 such matches in our European sample from 2004, but backing the Draw has a negative ROI of -43%. This is also a trend that is seen in the English domestic game with the 19 games here showing an ROI of -47%. 

I also took a further look at how Big 6 matchups played out when the teams meet in the late stages of domestic cups (FA Cup Quarter-Finals, Semi-Finals and Finals, League Cup Semi-Finals and Finals, and Community Shield games) and the Draw over 76 matches has an ROI of 39%. Manchester United host Liverpool in the FA Cup Quarter-Final this weekend, with the visitors currently odds-on favourites.

In earlier rounds of the FA Cup, there have been 20 Big 6 ties since 2004-05 and not a single Draw which is quite surprising. I've not looked at the League Cup earlier rounds, but I suspect the big clubs don't take this competition too seriously until they get close to the Final, but I'd have thought the FA Cup would be given a little more respect!  

There have also been 27 all-Big 6 matches in Europe, and the ROI on the Draw here is 11%.    

I plan to expand the European Club Competition section of the Sacred Manuscript with my Second Leg findings, and anyone subscribing at this late stage of the 2023-24 season will automatically get the updated document for the 2024-25 season for free.