Sacred Manuscript 2024-25 v1.0

My wife hasn't seen much of me for the past few days, but at 75 pages, and containing more than 40 systems, the 2024-25 version of the 'Sacred Manuscript' is finally complete.

I gave myself until the end of July to complete it, and I needed almost every hour.

The big changes from 2023-24 are that I have added systems for three new sports, removed German football (Bundeslayga), re-added MLB post the universal Designated Hitter rule, and tightened up the rather messy NHL system.  

Canadian Football (CFL) has been added, as have two basketball variations - the WNBA and College (NCAA) Basketball, the latter courtesy of Frédéric who found a very interesting angle, and you can follow him on Twitter (X) here: https://x.com/HkiBuzz

The NHL System has been improved upon. For the past few seasons, i.e. since the 2016 season, returns have been rather insipid, with the overall return of 5.3% since 2010 masking the fact that the last eight seasons have had an ROI of just 0.7%.

Not what the doctor ordered, and the improved system - fewer selections, but higher quality - will hopefully prove to be more profitable moving forward:

Markets do change, and I've covered the unusual situation which impacted the NBA Totals System last season. 

Fortunately subscribers kept 81% of the profits accrued before the disruptor came into play, but it's a great example of why it's important to keep records and monitor for anything unusual.

There are some new systems for MLB which had been asked for by some, and the 'Hot Favourites' have been removed after being suspended pending more data in the universal Designated Hitter era. 

The Bundeslayga Systems have also been removed. 

Two consecutive losing seasons, and three of the last four in the red, and it's clear this system is no longer profitable. It was also one of the more complicated to apply, so all in all, very hard to justify keeping it going.

I have kept the EPL Draws in the document, although they too had a second consecutive losing season. The low number of selections each season (last year was 28) means that returns can be quite volatile, but there are certain match profiles that continue to be a positive subset.  

I've also added a 'Technical Details' section where I calculate the probability that a system's results are from luck. Unashamedly stolen from Joseph Buchdahl's spreadsheet, it shows the p-value from which the 1-in-x number is derived.

The highest rated system is surprisingly from Serie A, with a 1 in 41,000 (actually 40,977) rating, while the lowest at 1 in 2 is from the CFL and is actually a secondary bet from a system that has a 1 in 132 rating. 

For the Spread / Totals markets, I assume a -110 line (1.909) for these calculations, though I usually use Pinnacle's -105 (1.952) line. 

For the Money Line I use Killer Sports' numbers, but these are typically to a higher overround than most people should usually be able to get.

Below are the systems where the p-value is less than 10%:

I've sent out the first version to the early-bird subscribers and re-subscribers with the request that any errors, however small, be made known to me. Along with any comments or feedback of course.

There are a lot of details, numbers and calculations in the document, so the p-value that I've not made a mistake is probably quite high!