Winners and September Baseball

It was almost a perfect night for the Sacred Manuscript yesterday with the Thursday Night NFL game (New York Jets v New England Patriots) a comfortable winner, and all three MLB selections were winners too.

The final WNBA selection of the regular season was a loser though, and while the systems in this sport do apply in the playoffs, there's typically not too many selections. 

One of the baseball systems is under review. Not because it's not been successful - this season it has an 'official' ROI of 27.6% and is up 14.84 units - but because it has generated no selections since the All-Star break.

Too late for this season, but there definitely seems to be a case for either making this a system a first half of the season system only or adjusting the parameters. 

The last month of the regular season is one in which the motivation for all teams is not the same. There are teams looking to win their division, teams looking to make the playoffs via the Wild Card, and teams looking forward to the season being over.

In the latter category, historically the market under-values Home teams, in particular Home teams on a winning streak who are playing a Divisional opponent. I suspect the focus for most bettors at this time of year is understandably on the more important games with post-season ramifications.

We have data since 2007 thanks to Killer Sports and the p-value is significant: