Friday, 29 April 2011

Buy The Rumour, Sell The Fact

Is there value in laying QPR in the Championship Winner and Promotion markets? The always reliable Sun has, shock, horror, an EXCLUSIVE, revealing that

the runaway Championship leaders are likely to face a big points deduction - possibly up to 15 - if they are found guilty of breaking strict third-party ownership rules over the signing of Alejandro Faurlin.

The evidence against the West London club is said to be damning and they could now end up in the play-offs.

The only winners would be Cardiff and Norwich who could then go up automatically.

The hearing into the signing of the Argentine midfielder two years ago begins next Tuesday and a verdict will be delivered three days later.

A four-man panel will comprise an independent QC, two from the FA's disciplinary panel and a football expert who will be either a former player or boss.

In theory, they should begin with a blank sheet of paper but many at the FA are openly discussing the case and reckon QPR - five points clear at the top of the table - are in big trouble. Those who have seen the evidence say Rangers are defending the indefensible.

An FA source said: "There's no question QPR have broken the rules. They know it as well. The only debate is what to do about it."

"If they aren't found guilty you might as well scrap the rules about third-party owners."

Some within the corridors of power believe QPR should be hit hard because they were well aware they were acting outside the regulations.

When West Ham were punished over the Carlos Tevez affair they were actually found guilty of failure to disclose information - not of breaking third-party ownership rules because such legislation did not exist.

Since then the FA have made third-party ownership illegal so the argument is QPR were worse offenders because they were well aware they were committing an offence.

If Neil Warnock's side are found guilty they will have seven days to appeal.

However, if QPR take legal action or other clubs decide to seek legal avenues because of points they lost when Faurlin played against them, the whole issue could drag on throughout the summer.

The nightmare scenario could even be that the Championship promotion play-offs do not take place at all until the issue is resolved.
Well that's it then. It must be true. Seriously, there could be some value in playing on the fears. Having been backed as low as 1.03 for the Win, and 1.01 for Promotion, those prices are now up to 1.14 and 1.05 respectively. If these rumours spread, there could be more movement yet.

Somewhat ironic that when West Ham United were involved in a similar situation with Carlos Tevez, one of the biggest moaners was none other than the much loved Neil 'Colin' Warnock, although to be fair, I did feel a little sympathy for Sheffield United at the time.

Green Eyed Trader has found a brilliant, yet simple, system, and has run some numbers on it. Check it out here. Mark also has some more comment on the full-time / part-time debate that is well worth reading.

1 comment:

Handy Andy said...

QPR to lose promotion? As a staunch supporter it's not something that I want to contemplate for one moment. However if it does happen the legal ramifications will ensure that the promotion process will be as tangled as possible.

QPR will refuse to compete in the playoffs while they take their appeals to higher levels rendering the playoffs as a total farce and waste of time. Clubs will be wanting to strengthen their squads but will not know what budget they have. It is more than possible that it will still not be resolved by the start of next season.

As for your comments on the promotion odds, I am in total agreement although the cash may well be tied up for quite a while. My strict policy of never trading anything involving QPR will stand firm!

By the way, I only read the Mirror.