Monday, 21 October 2019

Totally Without Evidence

After a losing week 7, the College Football Road 'Dogs bounced back with a 4-3-1 weekend taking the system to 30-24-4 for the season. 

We're in good shape for a 19th consecutive winning season, but there's still plenty of time for the wheels to come off the wagon, as happened with the Sooner Schooner yesterday. 

In the NFL, probably just five official selections this week, with the system suffering a 2-3 week. 

Bet Labs Sports posted this comment on NFL Totals:
My profitable baseball totals systems work the opposite way, backing Over when the total is high, and Under when the total is low (high and low being relative terms) so this claim seemed a little dubious. 

The average total for NFL games since 1989 is 42, although the average has been increasing in recent seasons and is now closer to 45.5.

While I don't have data for wind speed handy, I do know that in non-divisional matches, Overs hits at 50.5% of the time compared to 49.4% overall, but Overs don't come in more often when the total is low in non-divisional games.

In fact since 2014, when the total is set at 40 or below, Overs comes in just 46.3% of the time, making Unders in these games the value play.

Punters mindsets and biases tend to persist from one sport to another, so it doesn't seem logical that the MLB and NBA markets would be subject to a totals bias that the NFL markets aren't. 

As readers will know, Divisional matches are a sub-set of the NFL and have their own characteristics, and I've probably mentioned that these games tend to be closer and often lower scoring.

Again since 2014, in Divisional games, the Unders have won 56.2% of the time when the total is 40 or fewer, a number that climbs to 64.3% when the game is played on grass.

That wind may well be the reason for the discrepancy but always validate such claims.   

In the MLB playoffs, the Washington Nationals made short work of the St Louis Cardinals in the NLCS and will play the Houston Astros who won their American League series versus the New York Yankees last night. The Nationals are one of only three clubs never to have won a World Series game, a record they will hope to erase this week.

First game is on Tuesday night and the Astros have home advantage in the series. No Home Dog in Game 1, and overall this playoff system is showing a loss of 0.29 points from the ten selections in 2019.

This will likely be my last post for a few weeks, as I am travelling for personal reasons, and won't be back until mid-November by which time the MLB season will be over, and the NBA season underway. Very poor planning, but originally the trip was scheduled for August, but had to be rescheduled at the last minute, but there are more important things in life than making money. Well, so my wife tells me. 
It also means that I'll miss the moment this blog reaches the 2 million page views mark. 

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