Tuesday, 18 February 2020

Bettor Fans, Better Profits

I'm back, rested and recharged after a few weeks in South Africa with my son which was a great trip. The only negative was the rental car window being smashed in on day two of the trip during the nightly load-shedding (rolling blackouts) and my jacket being stolen, but other than that it was a wonderful experience to see a new country. I suspect I'll be back again fairly soon as my wife now wants to go and experience some of the highlights from the trip.

As for the cricket, we saw the ODI in Cape Town on 4th February which England lost, and the second ODI in Durban which was abandoned after a few overs of play. The efficiency of the ground crew left a lot to be desired, but it was quite entertaining watching the covers come off and go back on several times. They earned their money that day.

We also got to see some Super Rugby, and some not so super Rugby on TV with England looking very poor in their opening games of the Six Nations. 

After Durban we flew to Port Elizabeth to drive the Garden Route back to Cape Town stopping at Bloukrans Bridge on the way for my son to enjoy the world's highest bridge bungee jump at 709'. I was hoping to use my age as an excuse, but the oldest jumper there was aged 96 and as old as I am, I am nowhere near that impressive number! 
When I left, Tesla was trading at $564.82 which I was already excited about, but when I arrived back it was at over $800, and has just opened in New York close to 6% higher today, so the trip was more than paid for, and South Africa is a cheap country to visit. I hope some of you joined me on this stock when I wrote about it in the low $300s in 2018.

What did I miss in the betting world? Well I've missed a few bets of course, and the Superbowl, but a small price to pay for some life experiences. I also see that Matchbook have been suspended by the UK Gambling Commission. Not something that impacts me as their Premium Charge lifetime limit of $20k and 60% rate made this platform a non-starter, but my son has requested his funds be withdrawn and is a little nervous. The claim that they are a peer-to-peer betting exchange designed for smart bettors who want more value is hardly supported by their practices! It would appear that some of their decision making regarding extending lines of credit to compulsive gamblers has been anything but smart.

Back to the NFL, and for the Small Road 'Dogs it was another profitable season, with an ROI of 13.9%. 12 of the last 14 seasons have been profitable following this simple strategy. In Divisional games, the ROI was 9.3% with 10 of the last 14 seasons profitable.

I'm also noticing that bigger road 'dogs (>8) have been profitable for two consecutive seasons, something that last happened in 2005 and 2006, an area that night be worth monitoring, especially in the NFC. 

In the NBA my trip overlapped the All-Star break, but the Road Favourites system moved to 20-11-1 on the season (an ROI of 25.1%) while the Overs at 229 or higher has continued to generate profits and now sits at 95-66-3 for the season (ROI 14.9%).

I also missed the NHL's All-Star break, but the NHL System continues to have an ROI north of 20%, something that is not unusual for this system since the re-alignment in the league in 2013. 
The current win streak after last night's win by the Florida Panthers is now at seven. In my opinion, relative to the big three US sports (NFL, NBA, MLB) the NHL is somewhat overlooked and clearly the markets are less efficient. 

At least one study found in the NHL "that most bettors act more like fans than investors" which is exactly what seekers of market inefficiencies want. Exploit these while you still can.

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