Monday, 14 December 2020

Oh Come All Ye Faithful Electors

Another winning week in the NFL with the Small Road Dogs. A win in the early slate of games for the Denver Broncos, while in the afternoon games the Washington Football Team were the second winners of the day. Both teams were getting three points. In the Sunday night game, the Pittsburgh Steelers were getting 2.5 points and lost miserably but a 2-1 record is more than acceptable, taking the season record to 31-20-1.

There is a Thursday Night game this week which is currently looking like being a qualifier - San Diego Chargers +3.5 in a Division game against the Las Vegas Raiders.

While technically it was a Home game for the San Francisco 49ers, due to COVID-19 restrictions, the Washington game was actually played in Arizona, in the Arizona Cardinals home stadium. Teams playing "Home" games in another team's home NFL stadium are now 1-6 since the AFL / NFL merger in 1970. Probably not surprising that such a move is more impactful to the nominal Home team than to the Away.

The Washington Football Team was previously known as the Redskins, an offensive term which was belatedly done away with in the Summer, and it was reported last night that the Cleveland Indians are about to announce that they too will finally be renaming.

No "Toss-Up" matches in the EPL this weekend (again) but there were two "Close" matches that ended up 'close' but no Draw. A full round of midweek matches ahead, with Fulham v Brighton and Hove Albion currently just outside the "Toss-Up" range.

With the Electoral College meeting today in the US, and the rules stating that "subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market", Betfair should be settling in the next few hours. Biden can no longer be backed at 1.03, with the price shortening over the weekend to 1.02 after the remaining legal case in Wisconsin was thrown out, as have about 56 other cases. It's hard to keep track.

The confusion Betfair caused by naming the market "Next President" is clear, with several Twitter users convinced, based on 'information' garnered from conspiracy web sites, that Trump has a real chance of winning and that they would be paid out. I almost felt bad taking their money, but I got over it. The market has now traded over £1.67 billion although according to Jon, Biden backers are up against "God", although he curiously doesn't specify which one. Presumably the one his Mummy and Daddy told him about and he fell for it:
Other, absolutely delusional, comments from the thread above (cosmetic changes to spelling and grammar):

I got 28/1 but have never placed a bet before so not a clue what I’m doing

Just got my salary 1k for Trump, convinced my gf for £500 for Trump. Tried to get a loan but the bank will not let me

Bet on Trump. Won't regret cuz he already won

I had it at 30-1 with them last week. A month or more back I had 11-8 and the 4-1 so this new price is still very good. He won't lose will he? I've got nearly £5k potential winnings. C'mon Trumpy

I’ve got a few bets on at different prices, £5,500 when trump wins

Better 18:1 than nothing. Look at what you can gain not what you missed out on.

I had an argument with Coral because they have put out that Biden won so I said when Trump wins I want double my winnings

Do you think when the election result is confirmed as fraudulent that all bets will be classed as null and void and we’ll only get our stakes back? I’m hoping not as my bets on Betfair are for the ‘next president’ so technically they should pay out when Trump enters a second term.

I put £100 on 23/1 a couple of days ago. A Trump win is looking more and more likely.

Went all in when odds were lower but still got 17/1 ish!

Hopefully by Tuesday morning, all this nonsense will be behind us. I guess we should be happy there are such people happy to divest their money like this, but it's terrible for the future of democracy which requires an informed electorate to work, and clearly these people are not well informed whether it's about Trump or the realities of Brexit for that matter.

$TSLA had another positive week, closing at $609.99 (+10.90) after reaching a new high on Wednesday at $654.32. Tesla now has a higher valuation than Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, and there are suggestions Mr. Buffett might be the 'mystery investor' buying up millions of shares, but while he does like the premium brands such as Apple, Coca Cola and American Express, and Tesla certainly fits that bill, he's also a value buyer, and Tesla could hardly be considered a value buy. On the other hand, with Buffett's long standing philosophy of not investing in companies whose business he doesn't fully understand contrasting with Apple now being $BRK-B's biggest holding, perhaps at 90 years old, Buffett isn't doing so much stock picking himself these days, but starting to hand over control to his successors. 

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