Monday, 1 January 2001

Bundeslayga System

In September 2010, I noticed that the strategy of laying home favourites in the German Bundesliga was consistently profitable, making this an ideal system for mitigating Betfair's Premium Charges.

The rules are simple. Selections are those teams priced by Pinnacle at between 1.3 and 2.00.

In the three full seasons of 2012-15, (prior to this there is no Pinnacle price data) backing the home favourite in the top European Leagues is a profitable strategy with an ROI of 3.93% from 434 bets, but laying home favourites in Germany has been profitable in each of those three seasons.

Because the lay option is only available on the Exchanges, and Pinnacle do not offer a 'lay' price, the formula used in my calculations adjusts the home price depending on the Pinnacle over-round.

For example a Home price of 1.51 in a Pinnacle Sports market of 102% is adjusted to 1.5395.

Here are the results (updated to include 2015-16):

** Note that from 2016-17, the range has been adjusted. Please see this New Bundeslayga post for details.

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