Wednesday, 18 November 2009

Robot Trading

November is traditionally one of my strongest months of the year, but so far this month hasn't been as good as expected. I didn't even have to pay a Premium Charge this week, proof that every silver lining has a cloud perhaps.

It's just been one of those runs where value bets haven't paid off, in particular several basketball teams have been holding on to 2 or 3 point leads. The tide was stemmed yesterday with the Rockets trading at 1.7 at half-time with a three point lead at home to the Phoenix Suns. As much as I know from past years that 1.7 is too short a price, it's hard to shake the loss of confidence that a losing run brings.

A day earlier and Orlando Magic are trading at 1.25 at home to Charlotte Bobcats with a two point lead in the third quarter. Of course Charlotte then go on a run of offensive fouls or poor shots and I had soon had to cut my losses short.

Putting the emotions to one side is undoubtedly the hardest part of trading. Basketball remains my favourite sport for trading though, and leaders will continue to trade at prices that offer value to the layer. Early in the season it seemed as if every game played into my hands, so these runs come and go. The key is to stay detached and trade like a robot. Easier said than done though. It's a lot easier to lay £1,000 at say 1.4 when your last trade was profitable, than it is when your last profitable trade was a week ago!

While the expression "you're only as good as your last trade" (which I just made up) is not true, it does start to gnaw away at you when the inevitable losing runs come along.

Finally, once again, Brighton are at the center of the domestic football world today, and should beat Wycombe Wanderers by 1.4 - they're a goal up as I write this as are Ireland. A World Cup without France? That'll serve Platini right for rigging the play-offs by deciding that teams should be seeded.


Anonymous said...


When placing a value bet (whether it be with a view to hold or trade is immaterial), the value bettor, in theory, shouldnt actually care whether the bet wins or not. Each individual bet (win or lose) has an equal amount of "value" to the bet assuming all other variales are equal.

Of course in reality, this is extremely difficult to do! I definitely include myself in this too by the way.

But if you can genuniely accept & adopt the mindset that this bet/trade doesnt actually matter BEFORE placing it (assuming all matters of your overall approach are the same) then this "trick" becomes easier to pull off.

I dont think Im saying anything that you dont already know but its probably worth saying anyway! :)


Abrakadabra said...

Hi Cassini,

I'm following your blog in a regular basis and I read with attention your trades in basket.

What about trading unders in NBA? Suns were 2 easy unders in the alst 2 match, just poisoned with extra time risk.

Do you usually trade unders in NBA? Any possible strategy to discuss?

Post me in your interested in share trade strategies: