Wednesday, 15 May 2013

FTL Update, and 2013-14

The end of the season is fast approaching, and there is still all to play for at the top of the Friendly Tipster League table. No change from last week, with no Bundesliga selections, but with seven of the eleven Extended selections reaching half-time with no goals, the HT 0-0 category moved into third place. Pete Nordsted's Drawmaster found a draw at Sunderland for the seventh time this season (from eleven picks) and moved up to 5th spot. The Bundeslayga system had a good week moving back into profit with three winners from four, and also moving into profit for the first time since October were the Extended Under 1.5 selections. These were down by 33 points less than three months ago, but 34 winners from 89 has righted the ship and the Extended selections are now ahead in every category (Match Odds, U1.5, U2.5, U3.5 and HT 0-0).

That's the good news. The other seventeen contenders are all in the red. Backing Ian Erskine's 'Lay the Draw' selection is the best of the worst, followed by some Classic categories and some extinct contenders. Jon (Talkbet) and Neil are anything but extinct, but Neil is likely wishing he had quit at the end of January when he was up over 9 points, and in sixth place. Possibly he is wishing he had quit in July is Football Elite who had no selections this weekend. Little Al found one draw from the EPL games (the Sunderland v Southampton game) but the five losses meant an overall loss.
The grand total number of bets is now exactly 1700, for an overall loss of close to 48 points. The XX Draws (all categories) are up 72 points (not helped by the Classic selections it must be said, but fortunately more than compensated for by the other categories) while the professional services are in the red due to the under performance of Football Elite.

Speaking of which, I checked in to Daily25 and saw this rather interesting comment on the last week of April:
Soccer was the only sport to have an off week. Football Elite went 0-3 again and lost another $6,000, absolutely disgraceful, I think in the last 15 bets there has only been 1 or 2 winners. XX Draws made another nice profit and that’s usually the case when other soccer models don’t perform. It added $3,300. Combi FI lost $2,000 and TFA Established and Euro lost $800.
"Usually the case when other soccer models don't perform"? Steve does specifically mention Football Elite, who certainly are having a nightmare season, but Matt and I have observed how often our selections are the same, so perhaps Matt's misfortune is my gain.

Last weekend, (Matt had no selections this latest one), we overlapped on just two selections, both from the Bundesliga, and both were away wins. I take some comfort from the fact that both were Under 2.5 with Schalke '04 winning 1-0 at Moenchengladbach thanks to an 82' goal, while Bayer Leverkusen won 2-0 at Nuremberg.

As I may have mentioned before, Matt calls this overlap the result of us both fishing in the same waters, and the away team in my selections has won more times (176) than the home team (166). 153 have been draws. At the end of the season, I'll look back at last season and this and see how profitable laying the home team in these matches would have been.

Finally, after receiving positive feedback (and several renewals) from current subscribers, I have decided to continue the XX Draws service next season. Prices for new subscribers will be the same as last season - a bargain £99 for anyone joining before the end of June, rising to a still incredibly reasonable £149 after that.

Based on this season, there should be a little over 500 selections, and I think this offers really good value when compared to other services, but then I am biased!

Payment can be made via PayPal to CalcioCassini@aol.com

As for the FTL next season, several people have asked about how they can join, and I'll give this some thought. To encourage people to actually stay in for the full season (no one likes a quitter as they say at AA meetings) I may look to collect a small deposit of say £20 which will be paid out to the non-pro first three at the end of the season. Just a thought.

1 comment:

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