Sunday, 19 May 2019

Cassini's Law

There's a law known as "Cassini's Law", which states that the moment you start talking about a long winning sequence, along comes a loser. Or in this case two.

The T-Bone System ended its winning run at 13, a number not renowned for being associated with good fortune, with not one, but two losses on Friday, which takes the profit on the basic systems down to 9.25 and 8.60 points on the Straight Up and Run Line respectively.

Results for May to level stakes so far:

Meanwhile in the NBA Playoffs, the strategy of backing Unders is profitable so far. 

The logic I use here is that in the playoffs, the total in Eastern Conference games over the last ten seasons is six points fewer per game than in the regular seas, while in the Western Conference, the drop in points is 2.51. 

However, weighting so that recent seasons are more impactful, and the averages are 4.61 and 1.58 points per game.

This season, the regular season average total for Eastern Conference games was 219.7 points, so backing the Unders in games where the line is around 215 points or higher should be unpopular with the public, and thus offer value to the sharper bettor. Likewise in the West, the total where the squares balk should be around 222 points.

So far, we have a 10-7 record in the East, while in the Western Conference, we have a 5-2 record. A 15-9 record is a 22% ROI, but with so few matches in the playoffs, be wary of some variance with this idea.     

And with that, I leave you for a week. I'm off to Las Vegas shortly at work's expense for a different type of conference, but hoping to find a few hours to play some Craps and watch some games. Craps may have a -EV, (1.36% or less if playing optimally and taking the odds), but it's a lot of fun, a very social game, and after a big win a few years ago, I'm still in lifetime profit. Not to mention the free drinks, meals and rooms they will offer you after a long session.

A hot roll at the Craps table is like a winning sequence on a sports system. You want to keep pressing, but know at some point the 7 will show up. 

1 comment:

Unknown said...

With regards to the T-Bone system, you mentioned in an earlier post that it's more profitable to avoid picks that has teams playing from the same division - so, in the recent example, you have a Mets loss but they were playing a NL East divisional rival (Marlins), so this loss shouldn't be counted?