Sunday, 9 August 2020

Faltering Favourites

Brentford's 73 years of hurt will, unfortunately, be extended by another year at least after losing out yet again (no promotions in nine attempts) in promotion Play-Offs. 

For the matches I have betting data, backing Brentford over the years would have been costly:

One win in twelve matches, and that in the one match they were odds-on (versus Swansea City this season.) Of course, as soon as I mention that the Draw isn't generally a good bet in Play-Off Finals, along comes a perfect one. 

Here are the updated numbers for Play-Off Finals on neutral grounds:
In Baseball, MLB continues to have issues with COVID-19, with one team (St Louis Cardinals) having played as few as 5 games, while others have played the scheduled 16 matches.

If you follow big favourites, a strategy that has been profitable in 17 of the last 18 "months" (I combine the few games at the start and end of the season with the appropriate full month adjoining it, i.e. March with April and October with September) you will have noticed that July was not a good month. 

Of course, this season is unique with no crowds allowed, and an opening day delayed by more than three months. With double headers already being scheduled to make up for the postponed games, the season is likely to be even more atypical but August is traditionally a good month for favourites as is the second month of the season. 

Lacking a crowd, it's perhaps not surprising that Unders is the result in 57% of the games so far, and the NHL has also resumed play with similar results, 23-17-1 for Unders since the restart. 

In the NBA, teams seem to have adjusted to the empty arenas with the points since the restart now averaging 226.2.

Prior to the interruption, the total was averaging 222 points, but after an initial few games with fewer points, the average has increased. I stopped playing the Overs when the total is set at 227 or higher when the break occurred with a 161-121-8 record, but have been watching it since the restart. Currently it has a losing 12-13 record so no real damage if you'd continued. 

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