Tuesday, 4 August 2020

Bees Stung - 73 Years Of Hurt

Back in April, I wrote about the 1946-47 season and how the topic of voiding it came up after a spell of bad weather, a decision that would have cost Liverpool the First Division title. 

What I didn't mention was that at the other end of the table, such a decision would have saved Leeds United and Brentford from relegation. 

The season was ultimately completed and while Leeds have since returned on four occasions and achieved some success, Brentford haven't, spending most of their time since at the third level. 

If they win the Championship Playoff Final today, they will end a 73 year absence from the top flight, breaking the record gap of 70 seasons currently held by Bradford City.

Brentford haven't won a top tier game since beating Leeds 2:1 on 5th April 1947 (with two goals from former Crystal Palace players, in case you didn't know). 

Here are the results for the Championship Play-Offs since 2004:

And below are the outcomes from backing Favourites, Underdogs and the Draw in these games as well as in all neutral ground Playoff matches:
A common belief among bettors is that in Playoff Finals, with teams finishing within three (usually) places of each other (five in the National league), and the game being so important, matches are likely to be close.

The truth is that only 15 of the 67 matches to date have ended as Draws (fair odds 4.47), while the average (adjusted) Draw price is just 3.38. 

40 of the 67 matches fall into the 'close' category, but unlike in the EPL, there is no edge in backing the Draw here either. 

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