Sunday, 30 March 2008

Baseball Begins

No system football lays today, which isn't too surprising given that there were so few games. If I had all the time in the world, I would extend my system to include some of the major European Leagues, but there is always so much to do. A surprise to see Newcastle do so well at Tottenham, but no real surprise to see Chelsea and Liverpool win at home.

So tonight sees a close finish to the PGA Tour's latest event, the Zurich Open. As I write, Woody Austin leads by one shot from Andres Romero and John Merrick (never heard of him!) and two shots ahead of another four players. Should be an interesting last few holes ahead.

Also this is the opening game on US soil of the baseball season, with the Atlanta Braves playing at the Washington Nationals. (The Boston Red Sox and the Oakland Athletics played two regular season games in Japan last week, splitting the series 1-1).

Baseball is a sport well suited to my style of trading (looking for value) with the market regularly over-reacting to runs and then correcting itself. Just watch how the prices move when the road (away) team scores in the first inning. The home team hasn't even had a bat, yet the prices have moved several points very often. The slow pace of the game also helps with trading. 

There are short breaks bewtween batters, and longer breaks in the middle and at the end of each inning when the prices settle, and extra intervals when pitching changes come along (which can be quite often late in a game). I tend not to take a position pre-game (there are far more people that understand the game better than I do), but if I were too, I would suggest that a strategy of laying the favourite with a view to trading out during the game might be a winning one.

Golf Result: Laid Andres Romero after he had completed his round, figuring that this was value due to the number of contenders not too far behind and with holes to play. Although Peter Lonard pulled level at one point, he then dropped a shot and Romero held on resulting in a loss of £121.36.

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