Friday, 28 March 2008

Football Research

While I am waiting for the last few minutes of the Doncaster Rovers / Nottingham Forest game to tick away, I thought I would share some observations on the Premier League so far this season. 

I have data from 433 games and the theory that I was trying to prove was that in the first few minutes after half-time, the probability of a goal being scored is lower than during the rest of the game. I suspect that at half-time, teams get to rest and recover, and make strategic changes to counter what the other team is doing. 

Dividing the game up into 5 minute periods, what I actually found is that the period with the lowest probability of a goal is actually between 36 and 40 minutes, but very closely followed by the 46 to 50 minute period. I sometimes back the under at half-time and wait a few minutes before laying off, and I have had some success with this, and the statistics so far do seem to back this idea up.

I did also find it interesting that there have been 86 goals in the 90th minute so far this season - much higher than I intuitively would have suspected, but stats don't lie do they?

Full-time result is in and Doncaster Rovers have won 1-0. Maybe I should just back the opposition of my lay selections to win 1-0?

Onward and upward.

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