Thursday, 26 June 2008

Pants Down

For two reasons. I got caught with them down in the final of the Copa Libertadores tonight when two goals in the first 8 minutes saw my pre-game back of the under 2.5 goals go down the pan to the tune of £900, a major dent in June's profits, (and when I tell her, June will not be at all happy), and secondly because I deserve a good arse kicking for putting my money on a bunch of long-haired, jewellery wearing macho men who can't defend and thank an invisible man in the sky every time they score. Yes, I'm a little peed off right now!

When will I learn? I think now is a good time. I lost money in the final last year, and just three weeks ago got (metaphorically) killed by a goal two minutes into stoppage time, so it is time to give up trading football in-play and stick with what I'm good at.

I have more luck with betting on football pre-game and letting it run, and am convinced that with discipline and patience and a solid selection system, the rewards are out there. My problem is that I get impatient, and jump in and out of markets when the game is on and after three years I think the message is that I do not have an edge, and I need to stop. Message received and understood.


Graeme Dand said...

Hi Robert.

Thanks for sending me the CHC BS. I have had a read and agree with what you said in an earlier post. What a lot of shit!

I struggle to believe that anyone would read this, let alone try to follow the system and I’m maybe wasting my time trading on Betfair as I could be doing this sort of thing. I could easily make up a hundred similar systems for football matches and horse-racing and with my excel skills, there would be a few graphs included which show some amazing trends!

On to more serious matters…..

Why are you playing around on these under-over markets? Obviously, I’ve only got 6 months trading experience against your numerous years of experience, so I’m missing something here but I really don’t understand why people trade these markets.

I see it like spread betting in a way but your upside is always limited much more than your downside.

It’s like these guys who bet huge amounts at 1.01 on Betfair. I really don’t get that either. What the hell are they trying to achieve? Where’s the value with 1.01? (even if they think the correct odds should be 1.001!)

When I was reading your blog about betting on Under/Over goals in Euro 2008 and the fact that games are usually tight at start of tournaments etc, I really bought into that. I could see why you’d trade that and being honest, I would even bet on that sort of thing. I wouldn’t trade but gamble though. The odds were in your favour for all these games.

Trading in running on these sort of markets doesn’t involve a great deal of skill. You need a great deal of luck to not get caught out but not skill.

I read other blogs where guys do this sort of thing and it makes me chuckle. Where is their edge? How do they expect to make money in the long-run?

I think you probably know yourself that you are better than this and if you are serious about stopping doing this sort of thing, I think that’s a big step forward. Gambling large sums of money to win small sums of money is a mugs game in many cases unless you really feel you are getting value.

I’ve never bet on an odds-on shot in the last 3 years (apart from a very few horses who were overpriced!) and it’s something I feel very strongly about.

Just a few thoughts from me!


P.S. I can imagine the last thing you need mate is me telling you not to bet at odds on when you’ve just lost £900 but I’m sure you’ll know where I’m coming from!

Cassini said...


That was by far and away the most constructive comment I have had to date, and one of the reasons I started my blog was to get views like these. I’m never happy losing £900 but at least I am still ahead for the month and the lesson learned, (reinforced by you) although expensive, is a positive. Thanks also for those spreadsheets. Interesting reading, and you had put a lot of work into them. Some of those charts had some quite impressive gains.

I’m not surprised that you agree with me on my analysis of the CHC BS, although my use of the word ‘analysis’ lends some kind of credibility to it that is not deserved. Are there really that many gullible people out there that would fork out money for this kind of stuff? I‘m tempted to try writing something as an experiment in gullibility, but I think I’d feel bad about it.

The more serious matter. Yes, you are right. Playing on the under/over markets is just gambling. You win a few, but sooner or later get hit by a big loss. I’m going to write a post on this and see if we can get some more thoughts / input on them.

By the way, ‘my numerous years of experience’ totals just 4. I am still learning. I have still only ever made one deposit (£100), and that was down to £21.40 in September 2005 before I got the hang of it. I’m never happy losing £900, but at least I am still ahead for the month and the lesson learned, (reinforced by you) although expensive, is a positive.

Regarding 1.01 shots - there IS occasionally value on these. Last night, the baseball game between the Los Angeles Angels and the Washington Nationals was tied at 4-4 and the over / under was 8.5. Well, there is no way that the score can NOT go over from that position because baseball goes on until someone wins so I took what was there for ‘free-money’. But I agree that for the most part 1.01s are to be layed, not backed. I read a while back that they win 70% of the time which is a good enough reason to stay away from them for the most part. I’ve seen them turned over in many basketball games (especially on the points total markets), also on baseball, and of course there are several a week it seems on the football. I don’t do horse-racing, but I imagine there are a few there each week too.

As for backing odds-on, it’s all about value. If someone offered me 1.5 on one throw of a die being anything but a six, I would take it. Same price on it being an odd number – I’d pass.

Good to see you asking “where people’s edge is” on these bets. I remember asking you that when you were still in short trousers…