Tuesday, 25 May 2010

Suns Coming Up


The Boston Celtics -5.5 was another loss yesterday for the SBP yesterday which makes six consecutive losses and, of course, back-to-back ‘system’ losses.

I took a loss on the game myself thinking that the Magic showed signs of giving up in game three which I thought might continue into game four. It didn't happen. Helped by some dubious calls (the NBA doesn’t like sweeps because it costs them money!), they prevailed after overtime.

Rick did actually acknowledge the run of losses today in his e-mail, better late than never I suppose.

The Celtics and Lakers will both win their series, (and not just because the NBA wants a final with these teams in it) but if Phoenix can get a win tonight, it will make things very interesting. The Lakers still have home court advantage, but they can be sloppy. The line tonight is Suns -1.5 are 2.48 (or -1 on BETDAQ). Worth a few bob in my opinion, but I'll see how the game goes before going in too big. If Bynum is out for the Lakers, as rumoured, that would be another plus.

The Betfair play-off basketball markets are a little odd. The over/under for the Suns v Lakers game four in a couple of hours is 221.5. Fair enough, but then Betfair add markets a full 10 points either side of this number so that the under 231.5 is at 1.33. Maybe it generates more interest but lines are usually set at where the expected result will be, and if the prices show that the line is off, then the line moves by a point or whatever and a new market is added.

Not too much going on right now, and I'll be taking a few days off at the end of the week to get some hiking in with the (almost) Mrs. Cassini, so the blog will go quiet for a while. I went out for a run yesterday, GPS and watch recording speed and distance (got to love those numbers) and it turned out to be a run at a blistering pace. Unfortunately, by that I don't mean that it was an exceptionally fast run, but rather that I ended up with a big blister on my heel. I still have a few days to recover before the trip.

This time of year seems like as good a time as any to get away from trading, although I'll miss a few basketball and ice-hockey games, but there's always something going on in the world of sports so it's a case of choosing your poison.

Baseball's still slow right now with poor liquidity in-running, and so is the ice hockey. Occasionally BETDAQ have some decent liquidity on these ice-hockey games, but other times there's literally nothing. Strange.

Credit where credit is due, and th SBP's baseball picks did improve last week, going 16-11 for a gain of 392.37 to a level stake of 100. For the season his record is 67-74 for a loss of 815.89.

I had another winning week, but I'm still holding the Premium Charge at bay for now with my total charges at 20.47%.

With so little going on, I have been trying to catch the Elo ratings up to the end of the season. I'm up to the end of March for the major leagues, but it's all very time consuming. Kind of interesting though. I'll have some observations in due course, and try to make some comparisons with Talkbet's interesting Powerstats season summary. I suspect his automated process is similar to my manual spreadsheet process, so it will be interesting to compare findings. Well, interesting to me.

I also cleaned up the blog rolls so that a few extinct ones have now been removed (amazing how many blogs fall by the wayside) and I also created a seperate list for the primarily horse-racing blogs. John the Gambler's blog will soon be on its own in a new Walter Mitty section. If his bets are to be believed, it looks like he took a hammering on the golf at the weekend, but 'if' can be a big word.

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talkbet said...

Thanks for the plug Cassini! Good luck with the Elo's for next season.