Sunday, 17 July 2011

"Fairly Even"

It is my opinion that, at least for betting purposes, league tables are pretty much useless, and never more so than early in the season, but not everyone shares my opinion. Read the following excerpt from the 500 to 5000 blog, where the author apparently based his betting decision on the pre-match league standings.

The second mistake, although a smaller one, happened in the Cottbus v Dynamo Dresden game. I actually thought Dresden were 6th in the league and Cottbus were 8th, and so it was fairly even. Cottbus ended up winning after I had laid them at 1-0 to Dresden. It wasn't a biggy, but was a stupid one nonetheless.
Dresden stood in 6th place, and Energie Cottbus in 8th place "and so it was fairly even"? Well, not really. The match yesterday was the opening game of the season, and the league 'standings' were based on nothing more than alphabetical order.

I've known people back horses based on nothing more than their name, but for anyone even remotely serious about being profitable from betting, I really don't think basing decisions on the alphabet is a viable strategy. While the Premium Charge is unlikely to be an issue for our friend, with the new Premium Charge structure less than six hours away, I needed a laugh.


Mark Iverson said...

That is hilarious.

Graeme Dand said...

I'll keep this strategy in mind if I want a bet on day one of the season.

You must read some amount of blogs Cassini to find these sort of gems!


NICK said...

pure comedy gold!!

500-5000 said...

Hi Cassini,

Thanks for that post. I don't particularly appreciate the sentiment, but at least it goes to show someone is reading my blog.

As I stated, it was a mistake, and it's all part of the learning process we all have to go through as we trade betfair. If I had known it was day 1 of that particular league I would have left it alone.


Jonathan Lowe said...

yep theres a reason why he isn't successful

geoffm said...

Talking of german football- cassini, a question if I may? I've trawled through your posts but can't seem to find your posts on laying Bundesliga games (specifically favourites).I'm sure it was on here somewhere but may be confusing it with something else. Can you point me in the right direction. Thanks in advance

Average Guy said...

What's the issue? Looks logical to me, and probably as much chance of success as my usual strategies. Best strategy possible is find out what I'm betting and back the other outcomes!
LOL , thanks Cassini, I feel slightly less inadequate after reading this. LOLOL