Thursday, 21 July 2011

Zeroing In On Value

There are a few comments to catch up on, the first being from Geoff at Full-Time Betting who wrote:

Talking of German football- Cassini, a question if I may? I've trawled through your posts but can't seem to find your posts on laying Bundesliga games (specifically favourites).I'm sure it was on here somewhere but may be confusing it with something else. Can you point me in the right direction. Thanks in advance.
There are actually a few references to this phenomena, but it appears I first revealed it in this post from last September. If you search for Bundesliga, you'll find several posts on the subject.

I did feel slightly bad that 500 to 50s week was off to a disappointing start due to my being mean and unfriendly. He writes:
I'm starting today off with a bit of a disappointment. It seems that not all of our fellow bloggers are as friendly to us newbies as first seems.

I was disappointed to read that the blog 'Green All Over' slated me for making the mistake I made the other day. I posted it on here. I confess, that I was unaware that it was day 1 of the season of that particular league. Had I known that information I wouldn't have placed the trade. It was an elementary mistake, and one that I won't be repeating. If I want this to work on a longer term basis.

As the poster mentioned: 'I really don't think basing decisions on the alphabet is a viable strategy'. I'm inclined to agree. Thanks for pointing it out. It's a mistake I won't be making again. I m just a bit disappointed that he decided to post a sarcastic comment or two about it on his blog.

I guess 'Green All Over' is clearly having better success than me, at least, with comments like the above you would certainly hope so.
I do try to be nice to everybody, usually, but I have been known to be just a teeny-weeny bit sarcastic at times. It was just that the whole idea of researching a league table full of zeroes and basing a betting decision on alphabetical order, was just too wonderful a story to pass up. Yes, we all make mistakes, even me on occasion, but I doubt that many of us have found perceived value in team names before.
Anyway, enough on that subject. With the new season fast approaching, I have been studying the Premier League opening day fixtures along with the current league table (pictured), and find value in Blackburn Rovers (currently 3rd place on goal difference, and unbeaten) v Wolverhampton Wanderers (20th and without a point). Blackburn haven't conceded a goal at home all season, while Wolves have yet to hit the target away from home. At around 2.04, Blackburn look excellent value.

4 comments:

b l u e o r a n g e said...

I'm thinking more of a Norwich away win at Wigan. Norwich haven't conceded away and yet Wigan just haven't scored at home. 4.0 for away win, what value...haha!

Average Guy said...

I knew it, quick, back Arsenal for the title.

Funny thing is that even alphabetically they got the 3 relegation teams right,
West Brom, Wigan & Wolves.

By the way, keep up the sarcasm, to many middle of the roadies who don't express their opinions. I commented on 500-5000 and I told him to get over himself and to be fair he agreed.

Tony said...

"I was disappointed to read that the blog 'Green All Over' slated me for making the mistake I made the other day. I posted it on here. I confess, that I was unaware that it was day 1 of the season of that particular league. Had I known that information I wouldn't have placed the trade. It was an elementary mistake, and one that I won't be repeating. If I want this to work on a longer term basis.

As the poster mentioned: 'I really don't think basing decisions on the alphabet is a viable strategy'. I'm inclined to agree. Thanks for pointing it out. It's a mistake I won't be making again. I m just a bit disappointed that he decided to post a sarcastic comment or two about it on his blog"

Ok, so how many leagues would you base those original stats on mid july?? And like cassini says, barring the lack of knowledge of season start times, surely the zero games played is a clue.

I cant wait for the article on his top goal scorer picks!! Do we use forenames or surnames for these stats? Crucial information im sure. Al Habsi the wigan goalkeeper looks massive value or aaron lennon at smaller odds whichever you choose!!

geoffm said...

Cassini- thanks for the response- apprecaited.

In view of the above posts I'm going to start laying favourites with an alphabetIcal bias.......