The storm at work has just about abated, and I finally have my life back.
I've written before about how the different football leagues I follow all have their own unique personalities, and this suspicion is borne out after looking at the numbers for last season.
The best league for backing the favourites was Serie A, where 1 unit bet on every match would have netted (assuming 5% commission) 23.89 units. This strategy would also have been profitable in Spain, but a losing idea in France, England, Scotland and Germany.
When I looked at the returns from a strategy of laying odds-on favourites, Germany was hugely profitable, with a profit of 40.6 units to a 1 risk. Two other leagues were also profitable, but only slightly, while in Spain this strategy would have lost you 27.14 units.
Thinking this might have been something of a fluke, I decided to look at how this would have played out in 2008-09 and again this would have been a profitable strategy in Germany, although not surprisingly by less than in 2009-10.
More work to do of course, but at first sight it looks a promising low-risk strategy.
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