Monday, 27 September 2010

Defensive Indifference

Very little trading this weekend due to social commitments.

The draw hunting system again proved profitable in England with Fulham and Everton playing out a goalless draw. The other two came matches close with a 1-1 scoreline broken up with late away goals, but these things happen. One out of three guarantees a profit. France was also profitable, but no success in Italy or Spain which meant a small loss on the weekend overall.

Laying the odds-on favourite was a losing strategy in France, but profitable in Germany and Italy. It was extremely profitable in England, with Birmingham City, Liverpool, Manchester United and Newcastle United all failing to win. Arsenal of course also lost, but at 1.24 were excluded, although I did trade this game, making a small profit.

The other trading opportunity was the late NFL game between the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. This game offered an interesting example of how the scoring of a touchdown, even late in the game, isn't always such a good thing to back at the prices on offer. The Jets led by one point with 2:00 left in the game, and one yard away from another TD. The price was around 1.05 at this time, but I figured that it might actually be better for the Dolphins to call 'freeway' (weak defence), and concede the almost inevitable TD sooner rather than later, which would leave them with close to two minutes for a final drive with the possibility of a TD and a two-point conversion to tie the game. It was a smart play to give up the early TD and preserve time.

I put up a lay for a few thousand at 1.03, hoping that the Jets would score quickly, and that some people would be unaware of the strategy, and sure enough the Jets scored immediately, and with the extra point, led by 8 with 1:55 left in the game - a long time in the NFL especially with a couple of timeouts remaining. The 1.03 was duly taken, (greed driving the price too low) but the price almost immediately went up to 1.07, as if the realisation had sunk in that the game was not over, (fear kicking in), at which point I traded out for a nice bit of green all over. The Dolphins started their drive very positively, and the price went as high as 1.2, but ultimately they came up short.

The SBP came up with a 1-2 record in the NFL this weekend, and still in the NFL, I was asked if I could recommend any books on trading the NFL. I don't know of any, but if anyone does, please let me know.

Back to real football, and a good weekend for Football Elite, with their one selection, Espanyol, winning at 2.28, and two from four short-list winners, at prices of 3.8 (West Ham United) and 2.04 (Mallorca) for a profit.

1 comment:

Eddy said...

Nice going with the NFL as a novice myself i wouldnt have thought of a team giving up a quick touch down for their own benefit.Great read as always.