Scientific Bullshit

Great news! From the SBP today -

Guess what? I'm an author now! That's right, I've got a brand new book being released on Amazon soon called How To Beat The Bookie: Scientific Betting In An Uncertain World.

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If anyone is interested in a free copy, just shoot me an e-mail.

In the Chapter "The Future of Sports Betting" - It Just Got Easier, he has this to say about Betfair (spelling mistakes not mine, by the way)

In May of 2000, Irish betting firm Flutter brought the idea of a betting exchange to the United Kingdom.

They soon merged with another competitor Betfair, and together under the Betfair umbrella the company has risen to become the world’s large st betting exchange.

Betfair’s premise is pretty simple: two counter parties bet directly with one another and the winner pays a commission on winnings — typically 5% but sometimes lower. The company claims 20–40% better odds for bettors than traditional sports books. Again democratization takes place here.

Bettors are paired directly with each other and now face more friendly odds because they are paired with other bettors online. Betfair isn’t taking a side as did the Las Vegas Casinos in Steven Levitt’s study, they are merely playing match maker.

Established sports books have come out in force against Betfair for the company’s concept of “laying” horses. Horse bettors, or “Punters” as they are known in Europe, can bet on specific horses to win or lay (not win). Unfortunately, this takes the barriers to corruption down a few notches as it is much easier for a jockey to lay his own horse in silence and not win than it is to devise a conspiracy involving multiple horses.

Betfair counters this criticism by pointing out that it doesn’t take cash bets from clients and no one is allowed to have anonymous accounts — bettors need to produce identification in order to bet. In 2007, Betfair voided all bets on a tennis match between Martin Arguello and Nickolai Davydenko when rumors of fixing surfaced.

Betfair has established a strong presence in England and is expanding throughout the world. They also have a poker product with better odds, and even operate a site called Zero Lounge where table games offer a 100% payout — no house edge. It’s easy to see why Betfair has, in a fairly short time, become the largest betting house in the United Kingdom, where betting has existed for hundreds and hundreds of years.

The firm has simple become a matchmaker, and through technology has paired bettors with one another allowing for better odds than the previous betting model. This model will certainly continue to proliferate throughout the world. This is all very good news to the skilled bettor. The reduced odds in this democratic model make it almost a certainty that a skilled bettor, following a solid betting model and smart bankrolling, can win.

There are actually a few interesting snippets in there, although I find spelling mistakes very distracting. I'm not immune to them myself, but you would think that a real 'author' would proof-read his stuff and have another set of eyes review it before publication. "11–13 pioint favorites..."?