Wednesday, 15 September 2010

Sevilla And Storm

I mentioned in the last post that the Elo ratings performed surprisingly well in the inter-league games that the Champions League and Europa League throws up. I say 'surprisingly' because I only started tracking the non-British leagues at the start of last season, and the starting values assigned were rather arbitrary, being based on the finishing positions of 2008-09, and on UEFA's coefficient for each league.

Since most games are between teams in the same league, the fact that Italian clubs are rated higher than French for example, is irrelevant, but it's useful when European games are on the schedule.

Of tonight's three matches where both teams are rated, the predictions were Lyon by one v Schalke '04 (W 1-0), Manchester United by two v Rangers (D 0-0) and a draw between Werder Bremen and Tottenham Hotspur (D 2-2), so again they held up very well.

For tomorrow's matches, the ratings predict AC Milan (-1.25) v Auxerre and Bayern Munich (-0.75) v AS Roma, predictions that are not way off when measured by the Asian Handicap prices.

Looking ahead to the Europa League game between Sevilla and Paris St Germain though and it's a different story. The Asian Handicap has Sevilla favoured by less than 1, yet my ratings have Sevilla favoured by 2.5. Sevilla a the third strongest team in Spain, (and 10th overall), whereas I have Paris St Germain at a very average 12th best team in France. PSG are strong at home, but poor on the road, and at 1.68, Sevilla look a value bet.

Another value bet are the Seattle Storm about to play game two of the WNBA Championship. When a team is 20-0 at home for the season, a price of 1.35 seems very generous. Opponents Atlanta Dream were beaten by 18 at home and 10 on the road in the regular season. Game 1 was tighter, but 20-0 says it all.

No comments: