The Draw in the Argentina v Cape Verde match on Saturday ensured that the Round of 32 would end in a profit for draw backers, but at the halfway point of the Round of 16, not one match has yet gone to extra-time, although only Morocco v Canada was decided by more than one goal.
Norway's win against Brazil was a very rare win in 90 minutes for the underdog, with only one other such outcome in the last 42 World Cup knockout matches (Morocco beat Portugal 1:0 in the 2022 Quarter Final.)
We have had 95 knockout matches in the World Cup since 2006 and this was just the 12th underdog win with the ROI now at -50%. The ROI for the Favourite is -0.02%, with the Draw at 28%.
In the major Confederation tournament (Euros, Copa, AFCON, Gold Cup and Asian) knockout matches, backing the 'dog has an ROI of -23% from 317 matches.
Bottom line: If you're on the underdog in these games, good luck - you'll need it.
