Monday, 12 March 2012

EPL Final Lap

I have a small interest on Manchester United winning the Premier League, more of an accident than the result of any serious planning (the market doesn't Suspend when there's a goal, and I happened to be looking at it when a goal of some significance was scored a few weeks back). Looking at the price on United today, I see they are at 1.66 / 1.67 which at first sight seemed too short. Surely there's a twist in the road ahead, he thought, but looking at United's remaining fixtures, I'm not so sure there is. They do face an away trip to City at the end of April, but aside from that the highest placed team they face is Sunderland. City play hosts to Chelsea and visit Arsenal. If they can come out of those games on top and hang in there with United, that derby game will be nicely set up, but that's a big IF.

Arsenal v Newcastle United this evening, and there is little value. I have the Over 2.5 goals priced at 1.53, with 1.64 available, while Arsenal are priced at 1.49 versus my 1.36 calculation. Arsenal -1 at 1.78 on the Asian Handicap looks like being my play here. The Elo based ratings suggest they should win by 1.4.

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