Musings on Backing, Laying, Trading, Punting, In-Running and more on the Betting Exchanges (Betfair, BETDAQ) and related items of interest in the wide world of sports investing since 2008. This is NOT a P&L blog. "
I have a small interest on Manchester United winning the Premier League, more of an accident than the result of any serious planning (the market doesn't Suspend when there's a goal, and I happened to be looking at it when a goal of some significance was scored a few weeks back). Looking at the price on United today, I see they are at 1.66 / 1.67 which at first sight seemed too short. Surely there's a twist in the road ahead, he thought, but looking at United's remaining fixtures, I'm not so sure there is. They do face an away trip to City at the end of April, but aside from that the highest placed team they face is Sunderland. City play hosts to Chelsea and visit Arsenal. If they can come out of those games on top and hang in there with United, that derby game will be nicely set up, but that's a big IF.
Arsenal v Newcastle United this evening, and there is little value. I have the Over 2.5 goals priced at 1.53, with 1.64 available, while Arsenal are priced at 1.49 versus my 1.36 calculation. Arsenal -1 at 1.78 on the Asian Handicap looks like being my play here. The Elo based ratings suggest they should win by 1.4.
I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years on I am able to make a steady profit. I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.