Saturday, 17 March 2012

Magic Minutes

Cloppa asked:
What is your view on putting a bet in on a football match after 20 mins, i.e. laying U1.5 after 20 mins. Surely if you have identified value pre KO then the bet should be placed pre KO?
Yes, that is indeed my opinion on this. Any system that suggests that a specific minute has a magical property about it, is just propagating nonsense. If the price wasn't value before kick-off, why would it be value after 20 minutes, 35 minutes, 62 minutes or any minutes?

In the absence of any game-altering events (a sending off, perhaps injury to a star player), prices on all the markets move very predictably from that kick-off starting price. They do not suddenly deviate at 20 minutes offering momentary value. And if there HAS been a game-changing event, or even perhaps the game is being played in a style which either makes the probability of goals less or more likely than the pre-game prices suggested, it's always worth considering that it is highly unlikely that your reading of the game is more accurate than that of possibly many thousand other people also watching the game. The bigger the game, the less likely you are to find in-play value.

There is something of a dichotomy here - the bigger the game, the more liquidity, but the less likely that any one person has an in-play edge - the lower profile the game, the more chance that you have an in-play edge, but the lower liquidity limits your opportunity to take advantage of the edge.

I believe a popular method of applying the 'Lay The Draw' strategy calls for a loss to be taken if the game is still drawn at 70 minutes. I doubt very much if this makes any more sense than exiting after any other specified number of minutes. The last 15 minutes of a game see more goals than any other 15 minute period of a game for one thing, but again, why should backing the draw be value at 70 minutes if laying the draw was value at zero minutes? If the draw price was a value lay pre-game, then it is more likely to remain a value lay at 70 minutes, so the correct decision would be to let the bet run.

If you feel the need to take a red at this stage, then perhaps you should consider staking a little less, and letting the bet run?


BigAl said...

Prices in football move far less predictably than they used to.

The main market movers have increasingly advanced in-running models which react to more and different factors than in the past.

If the price moves are so predictable to you then you should be using your skills to bet into the Asian market - the main driver of football prices on betfair.

AL said...

Cass, by your own comment, if more goals are in the last 15mins, surely it is value to lay the draw at this point in-running?

much love

AL (not Big)

Cassini said...

If only it were that easy Al. Unfortunately, the world knows this statistic, and thus it is already factored into the price.