Monday, 4 June 2012

Heat Lose To Celtics, Celta Is No Fix

For the third consecutive night, the two MLB selections were the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (v Texas Rangers) and New York Mets (v St Louis Cardinals). No joy in the first game, but the Mets won 6-1 as 2.1 underdogs in the second. A nice win at 3.1 on the -1.5 handicap was more than a bonus. The -1.5 handicap markets are currently the most profitable of the three available ways of backing the selections (excluding the 5 innings line which I've not looked at). Interestingly, the ratio of +1.5 to Match Odds to -1.5 profits is almost exactly 1:2:3 (2.48, 4.96, 7.51). Well, it's interesting to me anyway.

In the Eastern Conference Finals, my prediction that the Miami Heat would win on the road came up just short, with LeBron James fouling out (for the first time in four seasons) with 1:51 left in overtime, and the Boston Celtics, up by one at that time, went on to win by two. A good game for trading with the Celtics as low as 1.09 (with an 18 point lead, second quarter) before Miami came back and led in the fourth and were layable at 1.5. Both East and West Finals are now tied at 2-2, with all eight matches being won by the home team. The West's turn tonight as the Spurs v Thunder series returns to San Antonio.

Apparently a few people were caught out by the Celta de Vigo v Cordoba Spanish Segunda Division game yesterday. I'm not sure why. Claims that the match was fixed are, of course, ridiculous, given the game situation. Win or draw, and Celta de Vigo were promoted. Win or draw, Cordoba make the play-offs. What's to fix? Both teams know very well that a draw will suit them both perfectly, so it's hardly a surprise to see a game where neither team was interested in winning. There's a big difference between a fix, and a game where both teams know that a draw suits them both perfectly. Most bookmakers were not offering prices on this game, and anyone betting on the exchanges has only themselves to blame if they lost. Understanding the game situation is crucial, which is why late season matches, second legs, final rounds of group games etc. are to be treated with respect. If in doubt, stay out. Don't be crying 'not fair' if you get involved, and get your fingers burned. It's unfortunate, but the expectation that every game is played with both teams trying their hardest to win, is naive to say the least:

I didn't have much money on the game but I just think it needs investigating further, as it is not fair to the general betting public.
and
Still a fix and if the people backing can be proven to be connected to the teams it's a crime imo.
Well, good luck with that. There is no crime; nothing to investigate. The match was a victim of the schedule and results over the preceding 41 matches. Nothing more. Remember Liam Brady's quote about football in Italy:
"When a draw suits both teams in Italy, the game will end in a draw. It's all to do with the mentality of the Italian people. They see nothing wrong in such an arrangement."
Speaking of Italy, and far more serious is what appear to be the genuine fixing of games in there. Again. 

Some good news out of Rome is that:
There is not much evidence that the chariot races were subject to bribes or other forms of cheating in the Roman Empire. In the Byzantine (Eastern Roman) Empire, there seems to have been more cheating.
Italy seems to be one country that has regressed in this regard in the intervening years.  

2 comments:

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