Sunday, 3 June 2012

Productivity

As I had predicted at the start of the series, the Western Conference Finals will now go to six games or seven games with the Oklahoma City Thunder again winning at home. Seven out of seven for home teams to date in the Conference Finals, but that could come to an end tonight when the Miami Heat will make the adjustments needed to take a 3-1 lead versus the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Finals.

The baseball system produced another winner as the New York Mets again had a shut-out win versus the St Louis Cardinals as the 2.18 underdogs. I also take these teams on the -1.5 and +1.5 markets, and the -1.5 market is currently the most lucrative of the three. I should check with Peter Nordsted to see if he places bets on the handicap markets as well as the Match Odds. 

The second pick of the night was again the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, who were playing AL West Division rivals the Texas Rangers. The Rangers pitcher was Yu Darvish, who has a great record so far this season of 7-2, but his ERA is actually higher than that of his opposite number Chris Wilson, whose ERA is 2.57. Add to that the fact that the Angels have won 9 of their last 10 matches, and are playing at home, and the value bet had to be the Angels at 2.06. Baseball betting can be strange at times. Texas did have a four game lead in the division, but their form over the last ten games is 5-5, was nothing too terrifying. The result was a 3-2 win for the Angels.

DateSelectionOpponentPriceHARW/LRT
29-MayPiratesReds2.1418L-1.00-0.84
29-MayMetsPhillies2.0863W1.080.24
30-MayPiratesReds2.1821W1.181.42
30-MayMetsPhillies2.30610L-1.000.42
1-JunMetsCardinals2.0080W1.001.42
1-JunAngelsRangers2.2042W1.202.62
2-JunMetsCardinals2.1850W1.183.80
2-JunAngelsRangers2.0632W1.064.86

As well as working out how to put tables into posts, as you can see above, I also managed to work out how to display my XX Draw Results (from 1/1/11 to 20/5/12) on the www.XXDraws.com web page in a readable format saving  the need to download the file, and as an added bonus, also worked out how to password protect a page. It was a very productive afternoon. Next season, in addition to emailing out the selections, I will upload them to a page on the web site as soon as the numbers are entered from the previous matches, and the selections are generated, which should allay any concerns about email going to spam folders, presumably because anything with XX in the subject is considered pornographic. Of course, when I started calling the bonus selections 'Extended', that didn't improve the chances of the e-mail not going to spam folders everywhere!

All very quiet on the football front for me, as I await the line-up in La Liga to be determined on June 17th. I did have an email from Griff who had some questions relating to Elo ratings for football, one concerning how to incorporate promoted teams, and I will be addressing this subject, along with a lot of other good stuff, in a post on the subject of Elo ratings over at Betting Exchange later this month.

Finally, an article that will be of interest to IPL followers was forwarded to me by Scott, and can be found here. On the subject of models, there was a quote by the author in a comment which was:
Like a lot of other things in life, it cannot replace human judgement, but it certainly can help in making better decisions.

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