Saturday, 23 February 2013

Planning And Patience

The above screenshots are an example of what I was talking about earlier in the week when looking at draw prices. One selection this weekend was the Norwich City v Everton game, and you can see from the first screenshot that I wanted the 3.6. Very rarely do I take what is on offer. The extra ticks you can achieve by being organised and patient add up over time, so with the Back at 3.55 and the Lay at 3.6, with a couple of days before the event, there's no need to settle for .05 worse.

The fourth screenshot was taken shortly before kick-off, and in just a few hours between being matched at 3.6, the price was 3.4/3.45. The screenshot in the middle is from Peter Nordsted's Weekly Insider sent out at around 11am suggesting a price of 3.48 so the challenge of fairly recording prices is clear. In my records I record the 3.6 I was matched at, but is it fair to record Peter's Drawmaster selection at 3.48?

We both had the same selection, but time makes a difference. As mentioned previously, the robustness of the draw price means that it 'saw-blades' (final screenshot) rather than trends so that you don't see the wild swings from say 3.8 to 3.1 that WhyAlwaysMe was talking about last week.

Something else he mentioned was "why is commission not included in the FTL table?", a subject that was well covered a little over a year ago. It would make sense if everyone used Betfair and paid the same commission, but that is not the case. For anyone new to trading or betting, it would be well worth spending a few hours reading through this blog from the start. Not all 1,500 posts are brilliant, but enough are to make it a worthwhile exercise.

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