Sunday, 17 February 2013

The Last Letter

There is only the one EPL game this weekend, today's Liverpool v Swansea City match, and Premier Edge have Swansea +1.25 a value bet at 1.81.

Alan finds value in the draw at ~4.5 while the Omega Betting blog returns after a three month break with some very bold claims.
Tomorrow sees this weekend's only EPL match and as the title says you should be laying Liverpool. Here's why:
Over the past few years I’ve been working on a ratings systems, which I’m pleased to announce is finally complete. I have been focusing my own betting on correct scores and have made a return of 60.22% of stakes in the season to date – Without a losing week
From next week I will be publishing the figures here, free of charge, but here’s a sneak peak at tomorrows game:
Liverpool are over valued: They have a less than 50% chance of victory and are at 1.62 on Betfair. Lay
Goals will be at a premium: There’s is a 58.9% Chance of under 2.5 goals, available to back at 2.32 on Betfair.
The most likely score is Liverpool 1-0 at 13.7% This is available to back at 10 and so represents value.
It’s also likely that I’ll be shutting the blog down in the near future. I’m working on something new which evidently from the lack of posts here has distracted my attention. However I’ll try to post up when time allows, at least to share my new system.
60% is rather impressive to say the least, and would see Omega well clear at the top of the FTL table were he competing, so I was very excited to read that:
From next week I will be publishing the figures here, free of charge
I was hoping he meant the selections ahead of time rather than the results after time, but in the end it is a moot point as just a few sentences later, Omega has a change of mind, and writes:
It’s also likely that I’ll be shutting the blog down in the near future
Well darn it. a 60% ROI, and without a losing week, is just what I'm looking for. Anyway, to his numbers for the match tomorrow, and Omega claims that Liverpool have less than a 50% chance of victory. There is probably no EPL team that divides betting opinions more right now than Liverpool. For me it is essentially a matter of whether your pricing model is based primarily on results, or whether shot and possession data are included. If the former, you are likely of the opinion expressed above, that Liverpool are a deciedly average team. If the latter, you are more likely to find their price value as results have underperformed expectations.

While Omega doesn't actually reveal his price for Liverpool, only that it is greater than evens, my spreadsheet suggests a price of 1.46. 1.61 is thus the price needed for my bet triggering 10% edge, and the best prices available are close to this. Paddy Power and William Hill have 1.62.

As for Omega's expectation of a low scoring afternoon, my Under 2.5 numbers are very close to his - expectation is close at 56.5% (1.71) with both of us way out of line with the market. I also have 1-0 as the most likely correct score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. Stand by for a 3-3 thriller!

Here are the other Premier Edge selections today for those following.
11:00 Real Sociedad v Levante - Under 2.5 goals (1.96 at Pinnacle)

16:00 Valencia v Mallorca - Both Teams to Score: Yes (2.0 at Boylesports)

20:00 Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid -2.0 Asian Handicap (1.85 at Pinnacle)
Meanwhile, on a completely different subject, the counter for this blog will tick over the 500,000 hits mark some time today, although the real total is already well past this number as the counter (starting at zero) wasn't introduced until some time had elapsed. According to Blogger, the true number is:

Not too shabby.


Anonymous said...

Hi Cassini

Great blog!

Why is 1.61 a 10% edge on 1.46? Isn't this including the stake return? Looking at profit, 1.51 would be 10% value as 0.51/1 is 10% higher than 0.46/1 when considering only the winnings.

Otherwise isn't there a distortion between % value at short odds (where the stake return is a large part of the payout) and high odds (where it is minimal)?

I don't know the answer, just a query I've never really sought an answer to.

Your thoughts greatly appreciated!


Vagabond said...

Interesting that the original poster felt so strongly about the Liverpool lay. They are so unpredictable that it can be easy to look stupid. To be fair the make up of the Swansea team today must have had a bearing on the end result. Does the rating system not take such things into account - I guess not.

Laurie Wakeham said...

Back to the drawing board on his rating system then.A 5-0 Whooping!
Can't say my system is any better though.I've been concentrating more on the A-League than the EPL with my system and its working well.Still need to add the shots on goal system though.Still need Cassini to help me with the question of ,after calculating shots on goal how to implement it to my Elo system.