Sunday, 6 October 2013

More Omelettes

Official prices are still awaited, but it looks like The Football Analyst's fortunes have turned finding seven winners from eleven selections, with Blackburn Rovers to win at Wigan Athletic today the twelfth selection.

The Cassini Value selections saw one winner from two selections for a small profit, and another selection today.

No selections this week from Emp, (which has saved me about an hour in updates) and Skeeve is probably looking at a small loss when the prices are confirmed. Several others have selections today, so I'll do the write up when the table is updated, but Punters' Friend will probably now be in last place after selecting ten draws and not finding any.  A little unlucky with a couple of late goals, but two winners from the last 24 shows how easily long losing runs can happen when you play with the draw.

Forza Fizzer found two winners from seven for a small loss, but the Bundeslayga had a good weekend finding winning lays of Stuttgart and a very short priced Wolfsburg.

Peter Nordsted's official account bets continue to struggle. Of the ten settled on Saturday, Peter had just one winner, (Over 2.5 Cardiff City v Newcastle United). I highlighted the problem with putting all your eggs in one basket last week, but again Pete went in big again with three bets on Overs in the Hull City v Aston Villa game (an XX Draw selection incidentally, so Unders was the play here) and three points bet on the Unders in the Liverpool v Crystal Palace game. The results were 0-0 and 3-1 respectively, a significant contribution to the current total of -13.79 points.

Football Elite has four selections this weekend, one winner from two so far for a small profit.

The NBA has finally returned, with pre-season 'friendlies' and the opening game coming from Turkey. Most readers will be more familiar with the football version of Fenerbah├že, but their Euroleague basketball siblings had the honour of hosting the Oklahoma City Thunder in the opening game. Fenerbah├že started well, leading by nine in the second quarter before the Thunder, more specifically Kevin Durant, took over and the Thunder rolled to an easy win.

Derrick Rose returned after missing the entire 2012-13 season with a torn ACL, playing for the Chicago Bulls at the Indian Pacers. Without him last season, the Bulls still progressed to the Eastern Conference semi-finals (i.e the quarter-finals in English parlance) and they are rated behind only Miami Heat in the East this season.

Pre-season games offer some good opportunities for in-play trading, with many people seeming to think the games will be played as if they were regular season games. They won't be. Starters will be rested and while some coaches want to win more than others, everyone knows that the games are not about winning, but about getting onto shape for an NBA season after a few months away. If you have to bet pre-game, bet on the underdog. With no form, home teams not playing at home (e.g. the Lakers last night played in Ontario - not the Canadian one though, so it was almost a home game!).

I'm not sure why anyone would seriously suggest a bet on Over / Unders without any current data to base a decision on, but that's what NBA Tips, "the UK's leading free tipping site" did. (Their claim, not mine by the way).

A total of 158 points (82-76 Bulls win) meant the bet lost by some considerable distance. It would be nice to see some data to back up these recommendations - perhaps how many points the true Totals Line should be, or what price the actual line should be. 

Their analysis of the expected number of wins for each team in the regular season also leaves something to be desired. The number of games in a full season is usually 1,230. Last season it was one game less due to the Boston bombing and the season before it was less due to the strike, but 1,230 games is usually the total.

So how the combined expected total wins of the teams from the two experts comes to 1,283 and 1,222 is a little concerning. It will be interesting to follow their selections as the season picks up.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I don't mean to be Rude but I think Pete is doing the betting technique of going for a cluster of bets in one game to get out of trouble which generally leads to further long term loss .