Wednesday, 14 May 2014

FA Cup Final Preview (Exclusive)

I am fortunate to be able to reveal Batchmook’s statistical in-depth FA Cup Final preview ahead of the official publication date. You should be able to make a lot of money by reading this now, and beating the market on this one.

Batchmook’s football statistical analyst emeritus expert (Naughty Pete Sted's) preview is here:

This season’s FA Cup finalists have been drawn together in three previous competitions.
Arsenal and Hull City have met five times in FA Cup matches, with Arsenal edging Hull 2 to 1 with two matches ending as draws.
Most recently, in the Quarter-Finals of 2009, Arsenal won 2:1 at home after trailing 0:1 with 16 minutes remaining. However, as this match took place in an ‘odd’ numbered year, it is clearly not as relevant as earlier matches in ‘even’ years.
Previously the two clubs met in the 1930 Semi-Final with Arsenal advancing after a replay winning 1:0 at Villa Park after a 2:2 draw in the first match at Elland Road. Hull led 2:0 with 20 minutes to go in the first match, and I therefore perceive value in laying Arsenal in the half-time market. These matches are particularly relevant given that both were played on neutral grounds, as of course the FA Cup Final will be. Interestingly 1930 saw the first World Cup finals and with this year also being a World Cup year, I perceive there is value to be had in backing Uruguay to win the World Cup.
The two clubs also met in 1908 and again a replay was needed to decide the winners. After a goalless draw in the first game at the Manor Ground in Plumstead, Hull City won the replay 4:1.
Arsenal were named Woolwich Arsenal in 1908 and while the relevance of including previous results from 106 years ago is beyond reproach and statistically significant, I must admit that the stats may not be quite so relevant given a club name change. Also, I note that the badges of both clubs have since changed which makes the statistical relevance of this match even more difficult to assess. Interestingly, 1908 saw the Olympic Games staged in London.
In summary, with two of the three ties previously needing a replay, I perceive that the draw offers some value. With 13 goals in five matches, the Over 2.5 is where I perceive value. I also think there is some value (although I won’t say how much) in laying the draw, and in backing Under 2.5 goals. You may also want to lay Uruguay as they only win World Cups played in South America when the year is divisible by 10 with zero remainder.

1 comment:

Lazy Trader said...

How can someone call themselves a professional sports analyst when they've only made around £18K per year since they've been on Betfair.

Although compared to the majority of 'Betfair' trading trainers out there who don't even pay PC let alone super PC I guess Mark should switch to training like the tennis guy who was touting for investors