Monday 26 May 2014

2013-14 - An Extraordinary Season

While I don't follow, from a betting perspective, the lower leagues in England, I do keep track of some of the statistics at the league level, and the loss of draws last season isn't seen in every league here.

The Conference did see the draws decline by 8.3% on their 10-year average to a record low, despite a small decrease in goals, but League Two saw the goals scored decline to a 10 year low by 8.6% and the draws consequently increase by almost 14%.

For the lower English Leagues, the raw numbers are here:

The Conference saw a big up-tick in home wins last season, the 48% being the highest in the last 10 years, while League Two saw the opposite - the 37.5% home wins being the lowest in the last 10 years.

The Championship was also at a record low for home wins in the last 10 seasons at 41.3%. Everywhere I look, the 2013-14 season seems to be setting records. Based on the past 10 years, the following records were set in 2013-14:
  • English Premier League - Highest Away Wins
  • Serie A - Fewest Draws, Highest Home Goals, Highest Away Goals, (and obviously Highest Total Goals)
  • La Liga - Highest Away Wins
  • Ligue 1 - Highest Away Wins (tied)
  • Bundesliga - Highest Away Goals, Highest Total Goals
  • Championship - Fewest Home Wins
  • League Two - Fewest Home Wins, Fewest Home Goals, Fewest Total Goals 
  • Conference - Fewest Draws / Highest Home Wins
Only League One appears to have had an average season with the numbers pretty much in synch with the 10-year averages there, but the number of 'records' elsewhere, and the divergence of them, is to me quite remarkable.

I am debating whether or not to start tracking teams in these lower leagues. It'll be more work, but my trading takes up less of my time now, and it's an interesting challenge. While the top leagues are where the interest tends to be, it is also where the betting competition tends to be, and there may well be more opportunities in the lower leagues. Not too low or we run into situations where squads are thinner, and inside information about a couple of injuries, hangovers, marital problems or whatever can be significant. Not to mention the possibility of match-fixing increases as we move down.

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